Friday, March 19, 2004

Pakistani Army in Standoff With al Qaeda

Pakistani Army in Standoff With al Qaeda

Aired March 19, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again, everyone. Good morning here. It is Saturday morning in Islamabad on an important day. War is always messy business and so much of what we talk about today is about war, the war that is going on behind us in the mountains of Pakistan, the war in Iraq.The Bush administration has always argued they are one in the same. Not everyone agrees with that and not simply for political reasons. Counterterrorism experts will say they are quite different wars. Tonight, we'll take a look at the broader war on terror, where we've come, where we still have to go, but we'll also take a look at the events on the ground, the battle raging here in Pakistan and a bloody and difficult week in Baghdad and Iraq.We begin the whip tonight with our Senior International Correspondent on the ground in Pakistan CNN's Nic Robertson, Nic a headline.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the question for the Pakistani military is will they turn this into a long drawn out standoff or will they go in and take al Qaeda head on?

BROWN: Nic, thank you. We'll get to you at the top tonight.Next to the White House, the president made a major speech on the war on terror, an update on the war in Iraq. Dana Bash with the duty tonight, Dana a headline from you.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, more than 80 countries were represented in the audience here today. The president's call was for a broader coalition, a broader sense of unity in the war on terrorism because he said every nation is vulnerable -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you.Next onto Baghdad. Walt Rodgers with the duty early on a Saturday morning there. Walt, on the anniversary and beyond, a headline tonight.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron on the first anniversary of the war in Iraq, Secretary of State Colin Powell was back in Baghdad again trying to persuade an increasingly skeptical world that this war was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you.And finally a broader look at the war on terror an update if you will, from Kelli Arena, Kelli a headline from you.

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Iraq is the primary front in the war on terror but as the recent Madrid bombings show both the fronts and the tactics are changing.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you. We'll get double duty from you and we'll get back to all of you as we go.Also coming up on the program tonight, Jeff Greenfield on the political side of the war on terror, was the war with Iraq a distraction? This will be a major political issue.And later, one of the more intriguing and perhaps honest characters we've met along the way over the last year, a young soldier on the eve of war and the fears that he openly expressed, all that and more in the hour ahead.But we begin here in Pakistan on the front line of a country in the war on terrorism, the battle between extremism and moderation, what exists in so many different places. Certainly Iraq is part of that conversation but what is going on in the mountains behind us, this battle with, oh perhaps, 400 al Qaeda fighters and the Pakistani Army is pivotal. Whether Ayman al-Zawahiri is there or not is a question we will try and sort out as we go but first the battle itself, how it's being fought and CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): Using heavy artillery overnight backed up by Cobra attack helicopters and troops by day, Pakistani military officials claim to be stepping up their pressure on as many as 400 al Qaeda members holed up in mud built compounds near the Afghan border.

MAJ. GEN. SHOUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: They have actually underestimated the resistance that they will face. That is why probably they were not in that much strength so they actually barged into a hardened terrorist den.

ROBERTSON: Burned out army trucks an indication of the ferocity of the fight so far, itself Pakistani officials believe an indication the al Qaeda fighters are protecting a high value target.Although Pakistani officials won't say publicly who they think they may have, privately Pakistani intelligence and military sources still maintain what CNN first reported Thursday that intercepts and interrogations indicate Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, is surrounded by thousands of Pakistani troops.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And Nic is here with us now. Nic, let me try and do a couple of quick ones. Are they any more confident today or are they less confident today that al-Zawahiri is actually in there?

ROBERTSON: From the press briefing they gave, the Pakistani military gave yesterday, they really avoided again like all officials here going on record and saying he's there. Behind the scenes privately that's what we're being told repeatedly. No one behind the scenes is backing away from that.

BROWN: They have, they talked about giving them 48 hours to surrender. I don't think anybody in their heart of hearts actually believes that surrender is on the table so why do we have any sense are they holding on?

ROBERTSON: There are a lot of people still in that area. It's not clear to the Pakistani authorities when they gave a four hour window for a lot of people in that area, a lot of tribal people to get their families out of the way of harm, how many people actually got out of the way, so there is a -- there is a concern by the authorities here are the tribes people there safe? Are they out of the way? Can they proceed with the battle?

BROWN: Nic, we're always glad to see you, never more so than today. Thank you, Nic Robertson who is with us in Pakistan.

ROBERTSON: Thank you.

BROWN: To Washington next where now in addition to the complication of the occupation of Iraq holding the alliance together is getting to be very tricky business. Spain last week, South Korea has made uncomfortable noises from the administration's point of view, the head of the Polish government made uncomfortable noises today about his country's role in all of this and whether it felt it was misled. So the president on an important occasion addressing the foreign dignitaries who had gathered with him in Washington had a lot to deal with. From the White House tonight, White House Correspondent Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH (voice-over): On the year anniversary of the Iraq war that divided America and key allies, a call for unity on the broader war on terrorism.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There can be no separate peace with a terrorist enemy. Any sign of weakness or retreat simply validates terrorist violence and invites more violence for all nations.

BASH: Last week's attack in Spain, the subsequent political defeat of an ally there, and deadly bombings in Iraq have the administration working to keep a shaky U.S.-led coalition together. The president cited attacks from Saudi Arabia to Russia warning every nation is vulnerable.

BUSH: Each attack is designed to demoralize our people and divide us from one another.

BASH: In the White House East Room, officials from more than 80 nations, including France, Germany and Russia who actively opposed the Iraq war. Mr. Bush said all now agree Saddam Hussein's removal makes the Middle East more safe.

BUSH: Those differences belong to the past.

BASH: But differences remain. France's foreign minister said Friday the world is a more dangerous place because of the Iraq war. Though security is still a problem, the transition to democracy facing challenges, the president called the day one year ago he ordered air strikes a day of deliverance.

BUSH: Who would prefer that Saddam's torture chambers still be open? Who would wish that more mass graves were still being filled?BASH: Only a passing reference to weapons of mass destruction, the central argument for war not yet found. Democrats immediately criticized the president for continuing to tie the war in Iraq to the war on terror.

WESLEY CLARK, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We distracted ourselves from the focus on terrorism to go into Iraq to a mission that I believe the Bush administration believed was sort of a low-hanging fruit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: But the president running for reelection on his wartime credentials has good reason to link the two issues. Polls show a vast majority of Americans support his efforts against terrorism but they are divided on whether or not the war in Iraq was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, things we've seen from here I'm curious if there's been reaction there. The South Koreans are balking at sending troops into an area where the Americans want them to go. The Polish leader saying he believed he had been misled about Iraq. Is the administration either publicly or in the corridors saying anything about either?

BASH: Well, I'll tell you what they're doing, Aaron. From the president on down they're making phone calls. They're working behind the scenes to make sure that the coalition does stick together, to make sure that South Korea, for example, keeps their troops there, certainly Poland keeps their troops there and even hoping that perhaps Spain might turn around.They are really working hard the diplomatic channels to do that. As a matter of fact, the president talked to the leader of Poland today and made it very clear, they made it clear at the White House here that they are going to keep their troops there. They are certainly concerned they tell us privately and they are doing what they can privately to say the same thing that they're saying publicly.

BROWN: Dana, thank you very much, Dana Bash at the White House tonight.Two nights ago on this program when we spoke with Secretary of State Powell, he reinforced a notion that we'd heard before that Americans have to be realistic about the expectations of what sorts of democracies can grow in places like Afghanistan, not all that far from here, and certainly in Iraq.It won't be like the Founding Fathers, Secretary Powell said, back in 1776. At the same time what has happened there this week looks anything but democratic. It has been a messy, bloody, deadly anniversary week.From Baghdad this morning here's CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): On this first anniversary of the Iraq War, the U.S. Secretary of State was in Baghdad again defending the American-led invasion and occupation.Meeting with U.S. soldiers, Secretary Powell reaffirmed the American commitment to rebuilt a democratic Iraq in the post Saddam era. In his words, what we are doing is right.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: There are those who are determined to stop us. They don't want Iraqis to be free. They don't want Iraqis to have democracy. They don't want women to have freedom in their own society.

RODGERS: Powell had a private meeting with Paul Bremer, the man leading the reconstruction effort in Iraq, this amid increasing evidence the U.S.-led coalition of the willing is becoming less and less willing. South Korea said it has canceled plans to send 3,000 troops to Kirkuk due to security concerns. The Spanish are pulling out. Later, Secretary Powell was confronted with a question claiming there was no terrorism in Iraq until the Americans invaded and that the world is actually less safe now. The secretary appeared to sidestep.

POWELL: This is not the time to say let's stop what we're doing and pull back and not run and hide and think that it won't come and get us. 

RODGERS: Secretary Powell's most awkward moment was when many Arab journalists walked out of his news conference in protest of the killing of two Arab TV journalists at an American military checkpoint Thursday. Powell promised an investigation of the incident. On Baghdad streets, there was this protest marking the anniversary of the invasion a year ago, demonstrators shouting no to Saddam and no to America. It wasn't the way it was supposed to be, an increasingly hostile Arab street. A year ago, U.S. soldiers came here believing they were liberators.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS: Those here in Iraq are saying they're having a very difficult time getting their message across to the Iraqi people -- Aaron.

BROWN: I'm curious if the secretary, if the general view there is that the secretary's visit was positive that it's being viewed positively on the streets of Baghdad.

RODGERS: I think increasingly less so. The problem here in Baghdad is that the Americans are responsible for security in this country under international law and the Americans have not been doing a grade A job of providing that security.Basically, the Iraqis want their country back. They want elections. They say they're ready for it. The Americans say they're not and the Iraqis want the Americans to leave -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you, Walt Rodgers in Baghdad.In fairness on the American side, Baghdad is an enormous city. Iraq is a huge country. It's hard to provide a kind of absolute security in an environment that doesn't exist there.Ahead on the program tonight we will get the latest information imaginable from the leading spokesman for the Pakistani military who has joined us here in Islamabad.And later, the story of Private Polanco, a young man who did the best he could despite his fears. What's happened to him since the war with Iraq?From Islamabad and around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We want to get a late read on the battle that is going on around the village of Wana up in this mountainous area of Pakistan between the al Qaeda forces and the Pakistani Army. Major General Sultan is the principal spokesman for the Pakistani Army. It's good to see you again, sir. We heard reports that today the army is going to launch a major attack, is that correct?

MAJ. GEN. SHAUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: In fact it's for the past two days that in the area where we feel that there is a hardened den of the terrorists and also their local supporters that has been effectively sanitized. It has been cordoned and the army should not take long to flush it out and maybe, I can't give the exact plans, but it should be very soon that we would like to clear it.

BROWN: Do you think another day, 48 hours, more than that?

SULTAN: I will say soon.

BROWN: OK. We have heard reports that some of the Pakistani paramilitaries, not the regular army, have switched sides in this. Is there any truth to that?

SULTAN: There is no question that people will switch sides. Everyone in Pakistan is loyal to the state. That has to be very well understood. These are just propaganda reports plus side warfare and maybe it's only the enemies of Pakistan who are going to spread such like rumors. There is no truth in these. I strongly dismiss these rumors.

BROWN: Do you and does the Pakistani military believe today, as you and I are talking, that Ayman al-Zawahiri is up in that group?

SULTAN: Well, from the type of resistance that we get and the kind of preparations that they have made of their den it's fair to assume that there would be some high value target there. I can't name the target.

BROWN: You've taken prisoners. You've interrogates some of those prisoners. Have any of those prisoners said al-Zawahiri is there?

SULTAN: Well, we have taken prisoners. Most of them are foreigners and we have interrogated them as well. As the operation goes on the kind of information that we get from the prisoners can't be shared as it will have impact on the ongoing operations.

BROWN: I understand. We have heard reports that your side, the Pakistani military side has taken some significant casualties in the last 24 hours. Do you, can you put any numbers on that at this point?

SULTAN: There are no casualties of the Pakistan Army in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: The Pakistani Army has not suffered any casualties at all?

SULTAN: There are none in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: Previous to that?

SULTAN: Well there may be some. We will give out the details once we are over with the operation.

BROWN: Someone described the situation to us earlier as the al Qaeda terrorists occupy the high ground and that's making in just the most basic military way this whole operation more complicated, is that true?

SULTAN: Well, it's not totally true that they occupy the high ground and the troops they are at the lower grounds. That's not correct. The troops have cordoned the area and ensured that the troops occupy the high ground and inside, if at all, there are high grounds with the terrorists they will be cleared. We have the means to clear those.

BROWN: No one can ever say anything I suppose with 100 percent certainty but how much certainty do you feel that those 200, 300, 400 al Qaeda fighters, however many are there, cannot escape?

SULTAN: I think with a great certainty I can say that they cannot escape. The kind of sanitization of the area that we have done and the surveillance means I am quite sure.

BROWN: Do you believe they'll surrender?

SULTAN: Either they'll surrender or they'll get eliminated.

BROWN: General, it's good to see you again. We've seen you a lot over the last few days. Thank you again for your time.

SULTAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you, General Sultan.Next up on NEWSNIGHT, we'll take a broader look at the war on terror. There have been victories. There have been defeats. There have been changes in tactics and methods and we'll look at all of that.From around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Reporting from Pakistan these last several days has given us a truly vivid perspective on both the promise and the complications of fighting the war on terror. We want to take a step back, perhaps several steps back, and look at it more from the big picture side, not just as it appears to us here in Pakistan but as it looks around the world.Filing for us tonight, CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA (voice-over): There is no better place than Iraq to illustrate the new multidimensional terror threat.

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: The al Qaeda are coming into Iraq or the al Qaeda affiliates are coming into Iraq because they know that Iraq is a central front in the war on terrorism.

ARENA: Officials say Islamist fighters have crossed into Iraq from Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Most are affiliated with a variety of autonomous terror groups but all are bound by a common goal to disrupt the transfer of power to the new Iraqi government. The situation in Iraq serves as a microcosm for what is going on globally on the terror front, which experts define as a growing jihad movement.

BRUCE HOFFMAN, RAND CORP.: This is a constellation of like- minded terrorists and violently inclined individuals there that depending on the circumstances cooperate with one another, share information, share weapons, share intelligence.

ARENA: Investigators are seeing new alliances and new tactics, as evidenced by last week's train attacks in Madrid.

MATT LEVITT, FORMER FBI ANALYST: A lot of people thought the Madrid attacks were not al Qaeda because they were not suicide bombs. That's a shift in target, a shift in tactic.

ARENA: Officials say attacks this past year in Riyadh, Istanbul, and most recently Madrid show continued resolve and an ability to recruit. They say there are related cells all over the world in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

GEORGE TENET, CIA DIRECTOR: The steady spread of Osama bin Laden's anti-American sentiment through the wider Sunni extremist movement and through the broad dissemination of al Qaeda's destructive expertise ensures that a serious threat will remain for the foreseeable future with or without al Qaeda in the picture.

ARENA: And for every terror leader that is eliminated there is another in the wings. Take, for example, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Officials say he is one of the masterminds behind the attacks in Iraq and believe he may have been connected to attacks in Europe as well.

HOFFMAN: He's become a leading figure in the jihadist movement like bin Laden in that respect because of his own self promotion.

ARENA: Experts say the terror movement is a movement of ideas not individuals and the evolving nature of that movement makes it even harder to measure success.

LEVITT: The bottom line is terrorism has always existed and in some form it will always exist. The question is can we constrict the operating environment enough so that terrorism is squished back down into some type of tolerable level where it is not the highest issue on our national security priorities?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA: Those on the front lines in this war say that is possible if the United States, like the terrorists, constantly changes its tactics and strategies -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelli, do people that you talk to, the counterterrorism people you talk to, express openly I guess that there are limitations to what the military side of this could do and then at some point you have to attack this problem both politically and economically? You have to attack the ideas. 

ARENA: Absolutely, Aaron, and that's what makes this so complicated. You can't completely seal borders. You can't completely round up everyone who has any anti-American sentiment. This is a can of worms they say that has to be opened from the inside.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you and we actually will be seeing you a little bit later in the program tonight. Thank you very much, Kelli Arena.Steve Coll joins us now. He is a seasoned journalist in this part of the world, an author of "Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001." Steve joins us from Washington tonight. It's good to have you with us.Just a micro question and then we'll broaden this out a bit. Based on what you know of al-Zawahiri is it conceivable to you that he would allow himself to be trapped in an area where he had no escape route?

STEVE COLL, "WASHINGTON POST" MANAGING EDITOR: It seems unlikely, although it's hard to know where he might have been surprised as this operation unfolded. He's been quite mobile obviously for the last two years and even before that for several years.He has deep experience in moving and (unintelligible) in those very mountainous areas. He's moved in and out of them quite confidently for five years and he's quite well connected in the local networks, both the Islamist networks and the tribal networks, so he presumably has lots of options when he finds himself in something of a corner like this.

BROWN: So, just briefly, so you think they've got him in a corner or do you think that may be a bit overblown?

COLL: Well, your reporting has been very good on this. The Pakistanis clearly believe that they've got evidence of his presence in these adobe compounds. In Washington, officials are more cautious. Nobody is ruling out the idea that there's a high value target, as the jargon has it, in this area but there's less confidence that it's Zawahiri himself. There are a dozen or more leaders who are less well know who might galvanize this kind of resistance.

BROWN: Let's take, Steve, a broader view here. I think there is a view among a lot of counter-terrorism people that one of the things that both the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have done is caused this movement to sort of metastasize, to spread on its own into a million or hundreds or dozens of different forms and, in a sense, make it worse. Do you subscribe to that? 

COLL: Well, whether it's worse or not is difficult to judge.But the sort of spatial description that you provide and that Kelli highlighted in her report I think is correct. Al Qaeda really was such an organization even before September 11. By the time you get to 2001, it had metastasized globally. It had developed connections to regional militant movements that originally been involved in local national struggles, sometimes religious, political struggles. Suddenly, they were increasingly infected by the al Qaeda vision. And I think one aspect of this description that you've developed that is important goes beyond the structure of the groups and toward their theory of what they're trying to accomplish. And what brings them together to make them so dangerous is their vision of inflicting mass casualties against the West. That's a new feature of the terrorism that al Qaeda has developed and tried to model in a way on September 11. It used to be that terrorists tried to create theatrical events for national causes. Now all these regional groups that might have pursued that method earlier seek shock events defined by mass casualties. 

BROWN: Well, let me play that back, to make sure I understand it. General Abizaid, when I talked to him the other day, said, ultimately, what they want is a kind of domination of countries. They want a religious, political domination. What you're talking about, it seems to me, is, tactically, they want to go about that by killing as many Westerners as they can. 

COLL: By killing as many nonbelievers as they can. That's right. I think the end is a vision of societies transformed by religion and political religion, as al Qaeda would define it, which means the rule of a Sunni caliphate and other sort of aspects of a futuristic, almost a fantasy vision of the way Islam would dominate countries. But, in the interim steps, at a tactical level, they see a need to shock powerful enemies who are unshakeable without devastating events. And in the last four or five years, they have developed theories about how to do that that involve these kind of devastating strikes. 

BROWN: Steve, thank you. It seems like we have come a long way from when the Russians invaded Afghanistan and all that seems to have followed. Steve Coll with us from Washington.Still ahead on the program tonight, this, like so many other things, has a political equation to it in the administration's linkage with the war on terror with the war on Iraq. Jeff Greenfield with that. We have much more from Islamabad as NEWSNIGHT continues. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Back home, in New York and San Francisco, there's expected over the weekend to be large anti-war demonstrations. How large? We'll wait and see as they unfold. Who participates, we'll wait and me. There's no question that the American people, if you believe the polls -- and we do -- supported the idea of going to war with Iraq. The question now is why, how the war was sold, what the country was told. Was it led or was it misled? That is going to be a central question in the political campaign ahead. Here's CNN's Jeff Greenfield 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

 JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): January 2003, as the U.S. prepares for war with Iraq, President Bush spells out the link between Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and a terrorist threat to the United States. 

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda. Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own. 

GREENFIELD: March 2004, in a speech the 101st Airborne Thursday, the link has become a possibility, but one the president says he could not ignore. BUSH: I had a choice to make, either take the word of a madman or take such threats seriously and defend America. Faced with that choice, I will defend America every time. 

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) 

GREENFIELD: The president today, on the one year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war, there is no mention of weapons of mass destruction and no assertion of a direct link between Saddam and terror. Instead, the war's achievements are described this way. 

BUSH: All of us can now agree that the fall of the Iraqi dictator has removed a source of violence, aggression, and instability in the Middle East. 

GREENFIELD (on camera): But the argument remains. Was the war in Iraq an essential part in the battle against terror or a dangerous diversion from it?(voice-over): American public opinion supports the idea of such a link. A survey last December showed that a majority of Americans actually believed Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the attacks of September 11. While President Bush has never made that argument, he has repeatedly raised the specter of 9/11 as a reason for striking at Saddam. 

BUSH: Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein. 

GREENFIELD: By contrast, consider the comments of the incoming Spanish prime minister, elected just days after bombs killed over 200 people in Madrid. Mr. Zapatero called the Iraq war a disaster, said a policy cannot be built on lies. Hans Blix, the U.N. weapons inspection chief, said Thursday the war has actually increased the danger of terror. And all through the primaries, Democrats argued that the Iraq war was a diversion from the war on terror. But, on Wednesday, John Kerry struck a different note. Yes, he said, the president misled Americans about the war, but there now is a terrorist danger in Iraq. 

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To leave too soon would leave behind a failed state that would inevitably would become a haven for terrorists, an instable state which would create its own set of problems for the Middle East itself, a problem for the region and a dangerous setback in the war against terror. 

GREENFIELD (on camera): Four different times in his speech, the president read off a country-by-country list of nations as if determined to counter the impression that United States was going it alone. And by fusing a speech on Iraq with a speech about terror, the president also seemed determined to continue underlining that link, even if it is very different from the kind of link he described on the eve of war a year ago. Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: David Sanger joins us now. David covers the White House for "The New York Times." And he is in Las Vegas.David, it's always good to have you with us. I think it's fair to say, if you look at the events of just the last week and a day, that it's been a tough week for the administration and it portends tougher political weeks ahead.

DAVID SANGER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": It sure does, Aaron. The administration came into this week hoping to lay out a sequence of events to show what the war in Iraq had accomplished. On Monday, they took a number of us down to see the weapons that had been -- the nuclear facilities that had been pulled out of Libya. And all week, you have heard this progression of speeches, Vice President Cheney's, the president's today. But what has interrupted, of course, has been the continued casualties in Iraq, but also the fact that the war has become a reminder, from the Spanish, from the leader of Poland, this anniversary has become a reminder that, while many people join in the celebration that Saddam Hussein is gone, the questions about why we conducted the war when we conducted the war are probably as alive now as they were the day the first shot was fired. 

BROWN: And central to that, it would seem to me, from the president's political point of view, is, it goes to the heart of his best political asset, his credibility, the belief the American people have in him that he's a straight shooter. 

SANGER: I think that's right, Aaron. And you saw Senator Kerry, in his comments and others he's made in recent weeks, try to tie the Iraq decision with a number of other domestic statements that the president has made to try to impeach his credibility broadly. But I think the problem goes beyond that, because what's happened since the terrible terrorist events in Spain last week is that you have now seen members of the coalition begin to peel away a bit. Obviously, the Spanish did. The comments by Poland did not indicate that they would in any way reduce their forces in Iraq, but certainly suggested that they, too, felt misled. And I think what the White House is concerned about, Aaron, is that, as the year goes on and as, of course, the handover of power to the Iraqis occurs, you could begin to see more fragmenting, peeling away of this coalition. And I think that's why he was going to such lengths to invite in today the ambassadors from many of the coalition countries, put them in the East Room and say, we're all in this together. 

BROWN: And just, David, one more political point, I guess. In some respects, it is also hard for this president, given the nature of his administration and its definition by 9/11, to change the subject if things start going badly. 

SANGER: Well, it is. And that's what -- that's one of the mysteries between now and Election Day. And one of the big concerns within the White House is what happens after we pull out the coalition provisional authority and begin to turn the governing power over to the Iraqis themselves. There is a lot of concern that that could lead to a fair bit of chaos. If it did, it would be in those months just before the election. On the other hand, if it appears to be going smoothly, then the arguments that the president made today, that we have not only liberated Iraq, but created an island of stability from which the greater Middle East can become more democratic and stable, then I think the president can turn this very well. 

BROWN: David, thank you. There are a lot of people in this part of the world, in fact, who believe that that could happen, but they emphasize could. They're certainly not guaranteeing it. David Sanger of "The New York Times" with us. We'll take a break. When we come back, we'll update the rest of the day's news. We'll do that from stateside. And later in the program, one of the characters you're bound to remember from the buildup of the war, his concerns, his fears and where he is now. From Islamabad and around the world, you are watching NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

ARENA: Kelli Arena here in Washington now with a quick check of the other stories making news tonight. The Army has dropped all charges against James Yee. Mr. Yee, you may remember, served as a chaplain at the Guantanamo Bay detention center, that is, until he was accused of espionage. He later was charged with a variety of lesser offenses instead, including mishandling classified documents, adultery and possession of pornography. He spent 76 days in custody. His marriage felt apart. And as for why the charges were dropped, a statement from the Army says publicizing the evidence against Chaplain Yee raises security concerns. The federal government says pregnant women, nursing mothers and young children should eat no more than one serving of canned albacore tuna a week. Research shows it contains higher levels of mercury than other varieties. And the government also warned women of child-baring age to avoid shark, swordfish, tilefish, and king mackerel because of high mercury content. And in Miami, mother and daughter are doing fine, by the looks of it. Seven weeks ago, Alessia Di Matteo underwent transplant surgery, giving her eight new organs, including kidneys, a liver, and most of her digestive tract. She was well enough today to meet the press and her mom. Well, on to the "Moneyline Roundup," starting tonight with a recall. The Coca-Cola is taking about half-a-million bottles of its Dasani brand water off the shelves in Great Britain, this after discovering that some bottles contained a higher-than-legal amount of the chemical compound bromate. Both Coke and the British government say there's no cause for concern. And get this. A couple of French nutritionists say that Big Macs aren't as bad as you would imagine. Their verdict published today in a dieting guidebook says Le Big Mac is way more helpful, for instance, than quiche lorraine, better, in other words, than a pastry made of eggs, cheese, cream and bacon. And ask people, are you happy where you work, and if they work in Los Angeles, chances are the answer will be yes. According to a survey sponsored by AOL, Angelenos are happiest in their jobs. Detroit workers are mopiest and Bostonians are happiest with their bosses. Wall Street, meantime, ended the week on a blue note, major declines across the board, pretty much the way it's been for the last couple of months. Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT, Aaron returns from Islamabad with a look at life during and after the war for one young Marine. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: I don't think any story we did in the buildup to the war created more mail than the story of Arnaldo Polonco (ph). At first blush, he seemed more a screw-up than a Marine. But what we have learned about this young man since was that his desire to serve was second to none. And, in the process, he and the Marines and the rest of us gained a whole lot. Here's CNN's Jason Bellini. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

JASON BELLINI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was three days before crossing into Iraq with the U.S. Marines, and Private Arnaldo Polonco was in trouble. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look at me.

BELLINI: Polonco's superiors believed he was faking heat exhaustion. This was becoming a frequent affair, Polonco refusing to carry the same weight in his pack as his platoon mates. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's just certain things that I know that I can't do. And I can't change it. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But should we be called upon to cross the border and his current actions, could that be a liability there? Yes, it could. 

BELLINI: On the eve of the war, Polonco begged his superiors not to leave him behind. They didn't. What happened to Private Polonco? A year later, I caught up with him in New York City. He's still in uniform, now a security guard. After four years in the Marines, he got an honorable discharge. Polonco tells me he joined the military because he saw it as a way, out of a world of gangs, drugs and despair. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When I was a little kid, there used to be shootings, everything. We used to be playing baseball right here. Pop, pop, pop. You hear gunshots. And all we did was just like keep on playing baseball. 

BELLINI (on camera): When you got back and you started telling your friends about what the war was like for you, what did you tell them? 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Basically, most of my friends, the only thing they wanted to know was like, how many people did you kill, this, this and that? I basically told them, no, it was just crazy. It was a lot of people dying and a lot of people not dying. 

BELLINI (voice-over): For the first week of the war, Polonco was assigned to a different squad. His job, guarding other Marine's packs. (on camera): Why were you in a different squad? 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why was I in a different squad? The captain put me with a different squad because -- I have no idea. 

BELLINI (voice-over): I interviewed Private Polonco once during the war for a story not about him, but about the mail that had just arrived. (on camera): Did you get anything this time around? 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not yet. BELLINI: No?(voice-over): Viewers responded. By the time the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit got back to ship, Polonco had hundreds of boxes of letters waiting for him. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For some reason, I was the one getting the most packages. And at first, I was like, who's this? Because it was name that I have never heard of. 

BELLINI: Some Marines teased it, called it pity mail. Polonco says he gave much of it away to boost the morale of others. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I would like to say thank you, too, to all those that ever sent me something. I would like to say thank you and we appreciate it. 

BELLINI: Polonco says he's the only guy on his block ever to see the world. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wanted to prove to myself that I could do something that's hard in life, so that could give me buildup steps and tell me, yes, if I could do this, I could do anything. 

BELLINI: And Polonco says he will forever be proud he was a U.S. Marine. Jason Bellini, CNN, New York. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: It is a reminder to all of us, not just to Polonco, to all of us, that we never really know who we are and how we'll react until the moments we're tested. We'll wrap up our week in Pakistan in just a moment. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: No matter where we are, we know what that music means. This has been a remarkable week in many respects for us and for the program, not simply for the dignitaries we have met, General Abizaid, Secretary of State Powell, President Musharraf, but for the soldiers, the privates, the corporals, the colonels in Iraq, who, regardless of your feelings about politics and policy,are trying to do something important, and for the young people here in Pakistan who understand that they are literally on the front lines in this battle between extremism and moderation that will affect the future of all of us and all of our children.And we wish all these people nothing but the best. Our plan is to head home. We'll see what events decide. Until then, good night for all of us in Islamabad for NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Interview with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf; Pentagon Downplays Possible Top al Qaeda Capture; Violence In Iraq Escalates Approaching Anniversary

Interview with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf; Pentagon Downplays Possible Top al Qaeda Capture; Violence In Iraq Escalates Approaching Anniversary

Aired March 18, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone or good morning.It's about 8:00 in the morning now in Islamabad. Twenty-four hours ago we stood on this rooftop and said events have a way of trumping plans. The plan was to be on an airplane heading home. The event in this case was an interview we conducted about 12 hours ago with the Pakistani President Musharraf and what he said in that interview, the first indication that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two al Qaeda leader, was in the sights, perhaps in the grasp of the Pakistani army.Should they get this man it will not be an end to the global war on terror but it will be a measure of justice for the 3,000 people who died on 9/11, a measure of justice for the hundreds of people al Qaeda operatives have killed at his direction and in his planning. That is our headline the hunt for al-Zawahiri that is going on in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan tonight.Other headlines in the whip and we begin from the Pentagon with CNN's Jamie McIntyre -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, today Pentagon officials were attempting to inject a dose of cold reality into the speculation that the Pakistani military might be closing in on bin Laden's number two, suggesting that the intelligence is unclear at this time who exactly is in that area surrounded by the Pakistani troops.

BROWN: Jamie, we would second that.To the White House next, and CNN's Suzanne Malveaux who has the watch, Suzanne a headline from you.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, this certainly could be the break that the administration has been hoping for to turn the tide away from criticism that the war was a mistake but the outcome of this search is far from certain.

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you.And finally, in the whip tonight on approaching now the anniversary of the beginning of the war with Iraq and at the end of a bloody week there CNN's Walter Rodgers, Walter a headline tonight. 

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Aaron. The threshold for violence in Iraq appears to be increasing daily this as Americans prepare to mark the first year anniversary of their lightning quick victory in Iraq, having said that, also increasing a tendency on the part of Iraqis to blame Americans for all their woes -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walter, thank you.And one more headline from us. You'll hear the interview that is being talked about around the world tonight, the interview we conducted 12 hours ago with Pakistani President Musharraf, his thoughts on the war on terror, his thoughts about this hunt going on now for al-Zawahiri and the sale of nuclear material and nuclear technology that his country engaged in to rogue nations around the world, all that and more in the hour ahead.But we begin, as you know we must, with what might very well be a critical moment, at least a psychologically critical moment in the global war on terror. Up in the mountains in some of the most inhospitable terrain you can imagine, inhospitable squared to be honest, there is a fight going on.It has been going on for several days now. Casualties have been taken. Prisoners have been taken and there is a sense that this is a critical battle because in the center of it may be a high-ranking al Qaeda operative Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two man in the al Qaeda organization.The first indications, the formal indications that we had that this might be going on came in our interview with President Musharraf. This is the part of the conversation that is being talked about tonight in all corners of the world.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTANI PRESIDENT: The resistance that is being offered by the people there we feel that there may be a high value target. I can't say who but they are giving fierce battle at the moment. They are not coming out in spite of the fact that we've pounded them with artillery.I spoke to the corps commander just now. I knew you were going to ask me this question so I thought I should be current on it. The net is there. We are there. They see very strong dug-in positions. The had -- the houses actually there are almost forts. They are mud forts and all these forts are occupied and they are dug in and they have been giving fierce resistance. So, he's reasonably sure there's a high value target there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: We'll hear much more from President Musharraf later in this program but there is more to talk about on this aspect of the interview and on this aspect of the story. As we said, there's a very fierce fight going on between these well-trained and highly motivated al Qaeda fighters and a very sophisticated and in many cases American trained Pakistani army. This fight is being watched very closely and perhaps even literally by officials at the Pentagon so let's start there and CNN's Jamie McIntyre.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): After days of fierce fighting, Pakistan's military thinks it might be closing in on Ayman al-Zawahiri but lacking any independent intelligence indicating al-Zawahiri is in the area surrounded by Pakistani troops, the Pentagon is downplaying the idea his capture is imminent or that getting him or Osama bin Laden will break al Qaeda.

GEN. RICHARD MYERS, JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: It would be an important step but it would not end the terror. It's not going to end with their capture.

MCINTYRE: U.S. officials say the operation in Pakistan's southern Waziristan province is a Pakistani military operation with no U.S. combat troops involved but the U.S. does have a significant troop presence right across the border in Afghanistan, including U.S. Special Forces teams whose specific mission is to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his number two.And the U.S. is flying unmanned spy planes equipped with night vision thermal cameras along the border searching for al Qaeda fighters who may attempt to escape into Afghanistan. It's all part of a U.S. military spring offense code named Operation Mountain Storm.With Pakistan forces exerting unprecedented military pressure in the largely ungoverned tribal areas and some tribes helping too, the U.S. is hoping to catch bin Laden or his lieutenants in a pincer move, a classic hammer and anvil strategy but the U.S. is well aware of how difficult it can be to pin down a single individual in the rugged mountain terrain.

GEN. DAVID GRANGE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: They know the terrain. They know the escape routes and if it's not sealed perfectly, if the discipline of the Pakistani troops is not pursued throughout the night, there's a good chance that someone could get away.

MCINTYRE: In December of 2001, it's believed Osama bin Laden slipped past U.S. troops and local Afghan fighters who thought they had him trapped in Tora Bora, Afghanistan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jamie, thank you. Stay with us.Also with us now in Islamabad is our bureau chief here, Ash-har Quraishi and Ash-har let me start with you. When you listen to the interview with President Musharraf he says I'm not going to put any specific names on it. It's a high value target, so why do we believe that it might be al-Zawahiri?

ASH-HAR QURAISHI, CNN ISLAMABAD BUREAU CHIEF: Well, it's not just the strength or the intensity of the fighting that we're seeing at this point, the resistance from these al Qaeda fighters. We also have information from intelligence sources and military sources who were involved in this operation that indicate that they do have intelligence on the ground.As you'll remember, this operation beginning earlier in the week and they did take into custody some al Qaeda fighters and they say that they've been interrogating these suspects and from some of the information they've gotten from them the indication is that al- Zawahiri is within this compound and is with these 200 al Qaeda fighters.So, it's information that they're getting from the arrests they've already made that is helping them to believe that al-Zawahiri himself is also holed up with these fighters.

BROWN: Jamie, at your end publicly it's understandable how the Pentagon is playing this and, as we said earlier, we second that. It's hard to know precisely what's going on up there. Privately, in the halls of the building, is there a sense that something major is afoot?

MCINTYRE: Well, I have to say that the hallway sense here was that the story was way ahead of itself. They have so much experience here with close calls with almost getting somebody and then it not happening that they were very concerned about the rising expectation. Plus, the U.S. doesn't have any intelligence of its own. You know they do have those high tech surveillance equipment but as was just pointed out the best intelligence comes from people on the ground and they have to take the Pakistani military's word for it that they have some good reason to believe that al-Zawahiri is there. So, there's a lot of downplaying of expectation here because they're just not sure what they're dealing with.

BROWN: Do you know much about the kind of weaponry that the United States has provided to the Pakistani army and the degree to which that weaponry might be effective in dealing with this matter?

MCINTYRE: Well, I mean not really. The Pakistani army is pretty well equipped and they have -- they do have higher tech communications equipment. There are a small number of U.S. advisers as well. You know the Pakistani government isn't inviting or allowing the U.S. military to operate across the border but there's a small number of military personnel serving in an advisory and liaison capacity providing intelligence, helping with communication, even providing some advice, less than about a dozen or so. So, the Pakistani military is pretty well equipped to deal with this, it just sort of remains to be seen how they're able to employ that equipment.

BROWN: OK. Let's bring into this now Ryan Chilcote who is in Afghanistan. Ryan, on your side of the border are you hearing -- I'm sure you're hearing some hope. What else are you hearing?

RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, hope and expectation. That really describes the position of the U.S. military and the government of Afghanistan. They would like to see the government of Pakistan, the Pakistani paramilitary there in the tribal areas keep that pressure up militarily on al Qaeda and Taliban that they believe are hiding out there.And the hope is, Aaron, that even if those Pakistani paramilitaries are not able to either capture or kill al Qaeda or Taliban in that area that at a minimum they will be able to push them out and that those fighters will run to the west into Afghanistan. That is, of course, where the U.S. military is conducting its own operation, if you will, in tandem with the Pakistanis.The U.S. military operation is called Mountain Storm. Two soldiers just within the last 24 hours killed in that operation. Basically you have U.S. soldiers working together with soldiers from the Afghan National Army. That's the army here that the United States is training, patrolling that border, looking for any fighters that might come through those mountain passes, those mountain passes of course opening up now. The snow is thawing and so they're ready. In fact, Colin Powell before he left for Pakistan said that if any of those fighters come over the border, the U.S. military will be ready for them here.Now, of course, they could go north or south but the thought is that they would come here to the west because quite frankly the people on the border in Afghanistan identify more with the people just over the border there in Pakistan tribally and ethnically and maybe even in terms of nationhood more than they do with their own government here in Afghanistan -- Aaron.BROWN: Ryan, thank you. Jamie, thank you. And, Ash-har here in Islamabad, thank you. You've done terrific work today. Thank you very much.

QURAISHI: Thank you.

BROWN: All of this, as you can imagine, is being watched very closely, very carefully at the White House. The president is scheduled on the anniversary of the war with Iraq to make a speech today on progress in the war in Iraq and progress in the war on terror.And too, if it were to turn out at least and al-Zawahiri was captured, that would be a great top to an important speech, particularly given that we are at the beginning of what looks to be a very fierce political campaign, so to the White House next and CNN's Suzanne Malveaux

.(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX (voice-over): Upon President Bush's return from a visit with U.S. troops, reporters shouted if he knew whether al Qaeda's number two had indeed been captured.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We do not know anything new.

MALVEAUX: Administration officials say it's much too early to know but if Ayman al-Zawahiri was captured on the eve of the one year anniversary of the U.S. war with Iraq it would be a tremendous coup.

DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: You can't underestimate the importance of his operation or the role that he plays in the operation when you start to characterize the level of fish. Some people like to call them big fish. He's definitely a whale.

MALVEAUX: But White House officials were also very careful to play down expectations.

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: It would, of course, be a major step forward in the war on terrorism because he's obviously an extremely important figure but I think we have to be careful not to assume that getting one al Qaeda leader is going to break up the organization.

MALVEAUX: That's the position officials have used to minimize the significance of Osama bin Laden's unknown whereabouts.

RICE: We've always said that even with Osama bin Laden, who we'd all like to see brought to justice that that will not be the end of al Qaeda. They have local leadership. They have other national leadership.

(END VIDEOTAPE)MALVEAUX: And the White House is trying to avoid the worst possible scenario. That is expectations of a big catch and then a possible let down -- Aaron.

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you, Suzanne Malveaux at the White House and it's a good point to underscore here. This is something that is very much in motion and it's not clear at all how it's going to end or even if every element at this point is precisely correct that it is, in fact, al-Zawahiri who is in their sights.Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT tonight we'll have more on the man that many believe is the brains behind al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri.And later more of our interview with President Musharraf of Pakistan, a man caught in the middle between the United States and al Qaeda, between moderation and extremism.From Pakistan this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: If the face of al Qaeda belongs to Osama bin Laden, if he is the inspiration and the financier if you will, then it is said that the brains of the operation belong to Ayman al-Zawahiri.He is a man who could have gone in a very dramatically different direction with his life, a man born of privilege in Egyptian society, a man who was trained as a doctor, could have spent his life saving lives.He ran up against a fork in the road and went in a different direction, a direction that has clearly led to the deaths of thousands of people. Here's the biography of the man at the center of all of this reporting today from CNN's Jonathan Mann.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JONATHAN MANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ayman al-Zawahiri first met Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan during the late '80s.

AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI: Working with Brother bin Laden. We know him since more than ten years. We have fought with him here in Afghanistan. We are working with him in Sudan and many other places.MANN: Al-Zawahiri and bin Laden went public with their terrorist alliance in May of that year. The two men issued a fatwah, a declaration, declaring war on them and told Muslims that it was their duty to kill Americans anywhere they found them.A few weeks later, the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were attacked by suicide bombers driving trucks. Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden would both be indicted charged with masterminding those attacks. U.S. government sources believe that Ayman al-Zawahiri was a key player in the attacks on Washington and New York. Since September 11th, Ayman al-Zawahiri raised his public profile appearing at bin Laden's side in several videos.

AL-ZAWAHIRI (through translator): (UNINTELLIGIBLE) people you must ask yourselves why all this hate against America?

MANN: He issued this audio tape in October, 2002 threatening new attacks against the west.

AL-ZAWAHIRI (through translator): America and its deputies should know that their crimes will not go unpunished. We advise them to make a hasty retreat from Palestine, the Arabian Gulf, Afghanistan and the rest of the Muslim states before they lose everything.

MANN: A series of audio messages followed and these pictures of al-Zawahiri and bin Laden released on the second anniversary of 9/11, actual date unknown.

AL-ZAWAHIRI: We want to say to the whole world who are we.MANN: It has been almost two decades since Ayman al-Zawahiri said he wanted the whole world to hear his message. The world heard.Jonathan Mann, CNN. 

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: We're joined now from Washington by Daniel Benjamin. Dan is a senior fellow of strategic and international studies and the author of "The Age of Sacred Terror." It's good to have him. And in Islamabad with us here on the rooftop Ken Robinson, who works national security issues with us and has a detailed resume in such matters.But, Dan, let me start with you. If al-Zawahiri's capture or death, if that's where we are and that's what this leads to, doesn't end the war on terror, and no one believes it will, what is its significance?

DANIEL BANJAMIN, CO-AUTHOR, "THE AGE OF SACRED TERROR": Well, it's certainly significant in bringing closer to an end at least the chapter of the war on terrorism that was primarily about al Qaeda because he was right at the heart of it. He brought an enormous amount of know-how and he really formulated the ideology that now motivates so many jihadist terrorists around the world. The most important thing is it will be a big symbol. It will show America is determined and it will show that there's nowhere to hide.

BROWN: So it is a psychological victory as much as anything?

BENJAMIN: Oh, absolutely. At this point, I think Ayman al- Zawahiri and bin Laden have been largely out of the loop in terms of the practical planning and organization of terrorist activity. They may have issued general guidelines and incited followers to act but in many ways they've been surpassed now by other groups, other networks such as the one of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi who has become quite famous lately, groups in many different countries. So, the actual impact in the war on terror will be limited but it will -- there will be a big symbolic benefit.

BROWN: All right, let me turn to Ken. Ken, the Pakistani Army is no third world army. It's a pretty sophisticated group but they are facing some well-trained, well motivated guys out there somewhere behind us and it is essentially for the army an away game, if you will.

KEN ROBINSON, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: It's not just an away game, it's a pick-up away game very quickly. What they sent in first was a militia and that militia was aggressively hurt by 18 guys, first string, al Qaeda trained folks, 200 of them.And then they had to regroup and bring in Special Operations forces and bring in regular army corps and now they've regrouped again and planned another assault. They're facing a very aggressive enemy in an area where they've never been in the last 30 years.

BROWN: You were sitting in the room with us 12 hours ago when we talked with President Musharraf and you'll recall that he described that first day of the fight, he said we were careless in how we went after them.

ROBINSON: Not only were they careless but they didn't anticipate the enemy's ability to plan for defenses. This enemy had target reference points which were registrations for mortar rounds which enabled them to cover all the high speed avenues of approach, the road intersections and they hurt them significantly as they approached and they realized that they were facing something new and different.

BROWN: Dan, on this side of the border, on the Pakistani side of the border is there much the U.S. military, much the Pentagon can do in support of the Pakistanis?

BENJAMIN: Well, I think there are a number of different overhead surveillance intelligence assets that can be deployed to help the Pakistanis. There may be some other kinds of technical collection that can be done.Of course there's also the possibility of air power being brought to bear if the Pakistanis themselves don't have it. I mean we do have -- we do have air power in the region but I think a lot of this is, you know, in a closed box that's beyond us right now. It's very hard to guess what's going on in there.

BROWN: And, Ken, just on the subject of what the intelligence can provide, if these guys, there's some speculation they might have, tried to get out of the net, break out of this circle that they were in could the intelligence have spotted that in the dead of night?

ROBINSON: Yes, they could. They have thermal imaging. They have moving target indicators from systems that can be platforms flying overhead and they can be relaying that information in real time to the Pakistanis.

BROWN: Ken, thank you. Dan, thanks as well. We appreciate both of you with us today.Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT tonight from Pakistan, we'll go back to Iraq, a war that continues on this first anniversary, another car bombing yesterday. We take a break first.From Islamabad and around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Almost a year now since the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Iraq in many ways has been transformed, some in big ways, some in small. We ought never lose sight of the progress that has been made there. We saw it when we were there earlier in the week but it's also impossible to ignore the enormity of the problems that remain and principally among them is the security problem.Almost 700 people have died in suicide bombings in Iraq in the last year. At least three, at least three died in the south of the country in a suicide bombing in Basra today. In Baghdad itself, the search is officially over for the victims of yesterday's horrible car bombing there. The search is over but the search for answers has hardly begun.Here's CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): An Iraqi woman surveys her lost world destroyed by a murderous car bomb the previous night in Baghdad. A local Baghdad TV station had a camera rolling Wednesday when the bomb was triggered. Twelve hours later what was once a quite Baghdad neighborhood was still smoldering, acrid smoke hanging over this city of five million.Lieutenant Colonel Mark Coate surveying the bomb crater imagined what it would have been like to have been at Ground Zero when the 1,000 pounds of explosives went off rocking the foundations of buildings half a mile away.LT. 

COL. MARK COATE, U.S. ARMY: It's a great deal of heat. The blast effects are enormous. Anybody within probably 50 to 80 yards would have felt the blast effects to the point where it would have incapacitated them if not killed them.

RODGERS: "We only felt a big boom, just like a rocket. Whoosh. And we were hit. My sister started screaming," this man said. The next morning, Iraqis were asking, why? Why? There is no concentration of Americans or British in this neighborhood. An American general in Baghdad blamed Islamist militants, saying they're trying to thwart coalition efforts to build a civil society here, but the Arab street is not buying that. "When America came, it was supposed to protect us, wasn't it? Such a big Army. Is it here to protect us or only itself?" Abu Yasub (ph) asked. In the southeastern Iraqi city of Basra, a day later, another explosion, conflicting reports about whether it was a car bomb or a roadside bomb detonated when a British military convoy passed. All the fatalities were Iraqi civilians. In Fallujah, in the volatile Sunni Triangle, it looked to many like the U.S. military occupation was coming unraveled, after a clash between gun-toting Iraqis and American soldiers resulted in one boy, a Muslim sheik and perhaps others being killed. The Americans were blamed, although they claimed they were fired upon first and some witnesses confirmed that. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

RODGERS: It's a given among U.S. officials here that violence in Iraq will increase over the coming weeks and months. And looming above all that now is the specter that the United States is now locked into a long-term guerrilla war with Islamist militants in this part of the world -- Aaron. 

BROWN: Walter, is it your sense and is it the military's sense that the violence we've seen over the last week is connected to, related to the anniversary of the war? 

RODGERS: I think that's the case. It's increasingly becoming more so. And I think the day you have to be most careful here in Baghdad and Iraq will be Sunday the 21st, because that's when the Iraqis will remember the time the Americans first invaded this country. It's going to be a very, very risky, tense weekend -- Aaron. 

BROWN: Walter, stay safe. Thank you, Walter Rodgers, back in Baghdad. We'll take a break here. Wolf Blitzer joins us from New York with the day's other stories. Later in the program, our interview with Pakistani President Musharraf, the interview that made news.Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BLITZER: I'm Wolf Blitzer in New York with some of the other stories making news around the country and the world. First stop Spain, where police have arrested five more suspects in connection with the bombings last week in Madrid. One suspect is Spanish. The other four are Arab. Meantime, the number of people killed in the bombings today reached 202. Just north of Paris, the bomb scare along a high-speed rail line was apparently unfounded. It began when a caller phone a bomb threat into police. Train service was suspended and the bomb squad called in. They found a package, but it turned out to be nothing more than an empty oxygen canister. The rail line in question carries trains between Paris and London. U.N. workers are pulling out of the town in Kosovo as the sectarian violence there burns on. The bloodshed in Mitrovica is the worst since the 1999 Kosovo war. Today, mobs of ethnical Albanians, most of them Muslim, torched a Serbian Orthodox Church and dozens of home. So far, the violence has claimed more than 30 lives and it's prompted NATO to send additional forces to back up the 18,000 troops already on the ground. On to our "Moneyline Roundup," which begins tonight with Dennis Kozlowski. Jurors now hold the fate of the former Tyco CEO in their hands. They got the case this afternoon. Along with his former chief financial officer, Mr. Kozlowski is charged with 32 counts of larceny, falsifying records and other violations. In dollars and cents, he and his co-defendant are accused of looting Tyco to the tune of some $600 million. Bumpy flying for United Airlines' parent company. Sources say UAL may emerge from bankruptcy later than expected. It planned to have its financial house in order by the end of June, but the company faces a lawsuit from one of its unions and has yet to hear from the government on a $1.6 billion loan guarantee. Either or both could keep UAL scrambling well into the summer. And markets today kept traders busy buying and selling all day, stocks riding a roller coaster, but finishing the day on the downside. Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, Aaron returns with his exclusive interview with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf. 

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BROWN: Geography can be destiny.And, right now, President Musharraf of Pakistan is trying to overcome considerable obstacles to change the destiny, if you will, of his own country. This is a most interesting man, a military man who took power in a bloodless coup in '99. He's tough. He's smart. And he's a man who has survived two assassination attempts in just the recent months. So he has a bit of luck on his side as well. When we came here to talk to him, we suspected he would make some news on the war on terror and perhaps some news as well on the country's sale of nuclear technology to rogue states around the world. We didn't imagine that he would make the kind of news that has reverberated not just in the United States and here in Pakistan, but across Europe and Asia as well. Here's the interview with President Musharraf. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: This is not some small firefight. This is heavy weaponry that is being brought to bear. 

PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTANI PRESIDENT: Yes, yes. But the resistance that is being offered by the people there, we feel that there may be a high value target. I can't say who. But they are giving pitched battle at the moment. They are not coming out in spite of the fact that we have pounded them with artillery. I spoke with the corps commander just now. The net is there. They are there. They see very strong, dug-in positions. The houses actually there are almost forts. And they are mud forts. And all these forts are occupied, and they are dug in. And they are giving fierce resistance. So, he's reasonably sure there's a high-value target there. 

BROWN: When you talk about high-value targets, you know how Americans are going to hear that. We're talking about the top one or two al Qaeda leaders, bin Laden. 

MUSHARRAF: Zawahri. 

BROWN: You think they're there? 

MUSHARRAF: Now, I'm not going to say that, because my previous experience is, whatever I say, then headlines come that he says Zawahri is there or some other -- I can't. It will just be a guess. But we -- I think it's very likely there's a high-value target. Who, I don't know. 

BROWN: Is it the intensity of the fighting that makes you believe that? 

MUSHARRAF: Yes. Yes, absolutely, the intensity of the fighting and the strength there. They are very strong. They are dug in and they are -- they have taken up dug-in positions. It's a pitched battle. 

BROWN: This is a part of the country that, until very recently, was very difficult for the government to assert any control over. So just so our viewers understand the significance of this, you have made a judgment that that can no longer be, that the central government of Pakistan needs to control, in some respects, the entire country of Pakistan? 

MUSHARRAF: And this decision, we took actually almost two years back, that we must move into this area of the tribal area. We call it the FATA area, federally administered tribal area, the seven tribal agencies.Nobody went into this area. They were living, I would say, in the Middle Ages. We -- actually, we politically addressed the issue with the tribal elders. And we told them we must -- you must allow us to come in. And they cooperated. For the first time, the army has moved in. So we are in all the tribal agencies. We are doing a lot of reconstruction activity. The army is doing it. And also the government, the civil administration is doing it. I think the reconstruction site is going on very well. And they are being welcomed by the locals. But the south Waziristan is the troubled area. I spoke to all these tribal elders myself just three days back. I was in Peshawar. And we got all the tribal maliks, we call them. There are about 600, 700 of them. They came from all the agencies, including south Waziristan. And they wear the big, very big turbans then. I really motivated them. And I told them, you have to -- this is not in Pakistan's interest. And all of them spoken that they had been looking after Pakistan's interests always. They have been very loyal people. But they are very militant. Each one of them carry weapons. It's a very strange kind of land. 

BROWN: I wonder if you worry or think about that the United States government wants you, whether it is in this area or dealing with some of the schooling, the education issues in the country, in a lot of areas, that the United States is impatient, that the United States wants you to do too much faster than realistically politically you can do. 

MUSHARRAF: One shouldn't see -- think that this developing country of Pakistan is as developed as any other country, that you pass in order, it's implemented in letter and spirit. That is not -- so you have to find a method of implementing what you -- your policy is. So we have formulated a strategy. That is easier. That is the easier part. But implementing the strategy is very difficult. So we are doing whatever we are. And we understand it's in our interests. What Americans need to understand is, we're not doing it for you. We're doing it for ourselves. It's in our own interests. So why would we drag our feet? Why would I not do it? All Pakistanis, any intellectual, any educated person understands, yes, this is the course that, in madrassas, we must teach them subjects, so that these boys, instead of -- when they grow up, instead of being just mullahs in a mosque, they should -- why can't somebody join the military or the civil service or become a doctor or an engineer or be a banker? That is only when they take the subject and take the board examinations. And that is what we are putting them on to. They're coming on board. And I'm very sure they'll come on board. 

BROWN: The truth is that probably most Americans and the American government wouldn't care, except for this, that they see these schools as the incubators for the terrorists of tomorrow. 

MUSHARRAF: No, this is not true in its entirety. Let it not be -- I would like to clarify this perception. If they think that every madrassa of Pakistan is teaching extremism, that's not the case. So let's take it easy. We are going step by step. We are taking the people who are on board, religious people on board, and changing their attitudes. I'm sure we'll be able to do it. We'll handle it our way. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: It is good to remember that Pakistan is also a nuclear country. And the father of its nuclear industry, Dr. A.Q. Khan, is a national hero here. It turns out he was also somewhat of an entrepreneur, selling nuclear secrets, nuclear technology to rogue countries around the world. This has just started to come out. And we talked to President Musharraf about that. And that is part of part two of the interview after the break. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Are you embarrassed at the revelations of how the country's nuclear industry, among the most sensitive subjects, I think, in the world today, spread its knowledge to some dangerous states? And are you concerned that there is a perception that the military, of which you were intimately involved, must have participated or must have known? 

MUSHARRAF: No, I'm extremely embarrassed, first of all. I think that, certainly, we're extremely embarrassed that our national hero is involved in proliferation. It's most embarrassing. On the other side, when you talk of the military, it does cause concern. But I am very sure, I'm extremely positive that neither the military, nor the government was involved. It's these individuals who carried it out. And I've explained, we have carried out our investigation. 

BROWN: How long do you think it will take to make what is really a fundamental change in Pakistani life? 

MUSHARRAF: I think, certainly, five or 10 years is certainly the period. It will be doable in this time, because, together, with this, all this is related to poverty and lack of education also. So, we -- the economy has to go -- do well. We have to create jobs for the people, reduce poverty. That is what we are doing, as our economic strategy is based on a revival of the economy and poverty alleviation. And we are trying to improve the education. We are trying to introduce this new education system into the madrassas. So I'm sure this is doable within this time frame of five or 10 years. And all the economic mega projects that we've launched are all focused towards addressing the -- giving a boost to the economy and also poverty alleviation. So I'm sure, within this time, if we manage to get rid of the al Qaeda, which I'm very sure we will be able to, and this, we should be able to do this year, or maximum, next year in -- from Pakistan, there shall be no al Qaeda. 

BROWN: The importance in historical terms of where your country is now, which way it goes, whether the forces of moderation prevail, what it means to the lives of the people of Pakistan and beyond Pakistan, how important a moment do you find yourself and your country in? 

MUSHARRAF: Oh, I think we are at a crossroads. I keep saying everywhere I think this country's destiny is at a crossroads. If we can manage ourselves well, we are -- our future is extremely bright, because this country has a role to play in the Muslim world. It is one of the most important Muslim countries. It has a role, very critical role, in this region, because this country, geographically, is the link between Central Asia republics, South Asia and West Asia. If Central Asia is looking down south towards the sea and the world, they need Pakistan to go there. If South Asia or India has to interact with Afghanistan and Central Asia, they need Pakistan. If they want to get gas from Turkmenistan, they need Pakistan. If India wants gas from Iran or Qatar, they need Pakistan. We are at the center. And we must understand the value of our -- the strategic value of our location. So we have a role to play in this whole region. We have to put our house in order. And this country has all the potential. We have the human potential, as well as resources. But we haven't been putting our act together, unfortunately. Now we have. Our economy is on the rise. All indicators are positive. All macroeconomics indicators are positive. And we are on the rise now, if only we can deal with these issues. And I call them four very critical issues, one, world perception that everything in Afghanistan is happening from Pakistan, everything in Kashmir is happening from Pakistan, all nuclear proliferation has been done by Pakistan, and that we are an extremist, militant, intolerant society. We have to deal with all these four. And we are dealing with them. We are negotiating with India. We are tackling al Qaeda. We are -- we have tackled the nuclear issue, hopefully, although I know there are people who keep casting aspersions. And then we have to tackle this issue of extremism and finish it from here. And we have a bright future. I am very confident we have a bright future. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: I'm from the school of journalism that says, if your mother tells you she loves you, check it out. And the problem with our top story, the hunt for al-Zawahri, is, we can't check it out. We can't show you the pictures. So we're skeptical, but we're also optimists. We hope the Pakistani government and army has him surrounded. And we hope that they get him. He deserves to be got, if you will. And we're still young enough to keep our fingers crossed. That's our report for tonight. Good night for all of us in Islamabad for NEWSNIGHT.

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