Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Dean Quits Presidential Race; White House Backs Off Jobs Projections

Dean Quits Presidential Race; White House Backs Off Jobs Projections

Aired February 18, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.There is sizzle and there is steak and in the end Howard Dean was more the former than the latter. But to leave it at that is to ignore his impact on the race, on the other candidates and perhaps on the November election as well.While his better known rivals were trying to find a voice and a message, Dr. Dean already had one. Democrats and maybe a good number of independents are angry, angry at the war, angry about the economy, angry most of all at George Bush.It was Dean's anger that helped define the race and, oddly, it may have been that same anger that scared voters off. But he threw the first punches at Republicans. He softened them up some and if the Democratic candidate in November actually wins this thing, Howard Dean should get at least a piece of the credit.The end of the Dean campaign tops the program and begins the whip. CNN's Candy Crowley has been with the campaign from the start, Candy the headline tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, as you said, the doctor is out. The campaign ended here in Burlington but a long, strange trip it's been.BROWN: It has been that. We'll get back to you, Candy, at the top.We go next to CNN's Dan Lothian also on the trail, Dan a headline from you tonight.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Aaron, Senator Edwards and Senator Kerry are now essentially in a two man race, the question now what is the strategy to win on Super Tuesday -- Aaron?BROWN: Dan, thank you.The White House next where the economy became something of a bone of contention within the White House. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King working tonight, John a headline.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, it was just nine days ago the administration predicted 2.6 million new jobs this year. The first two members of the cabinet, then the president himself refused to stand by those numbers. The White House says economic forecasts change. Democrats say this president has a credibility problem.

BROWN: John, thank you.And finally the question of al Qaeda's presence in Iraq, the story being reported from the Pentagon by Jamie McIntyre, Jamie a headline tonight.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, U.S. commanders for weeks have been saying they saw the fingerprints of al Qaeda in the violence in Iraq. Tonight they say they've rounded up some suspected al Qaeda members who may have had a hand in the attacks.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, good to see you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.Also coming up on the program tonight our interview with Cardinal Roger Mahoney of Los Angeles about a report on sexual abuse going back 70 years in his diocese.Later, another in our series of still photos, look at it this way we call it, tonight young offenders trying to make it through prison.And just out of the pen or perhaps the coop, the rooster stops by with morning papers, all that and more in the hour ahead.We begin tonight with Howard Dean, Howard who a year ago, the obvious nominee two months ago, third place last night and out of the race by this afternoon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): What was unthinkable less than two months ago was a predictable moment today.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am no longer actively pursuing the presidency. We will, however, continue to build a new organization using our enormous grassroots network to continue the effort to transform the Democratic Party and to change our country.

BROWN: Tonight, all those Deaniacs, those enthusiastic supporters of the governor, must now decide do they stay in politics, do they vote or do they walk away? Their leader offered this.

DEAN: I will support the nominee of our party. I will do everything I can to beat George W. Bush. I urge you to do the same.

BROWN: It is too late in the process to stop Dr. Dean's name from appearing on ballots in the big Super Tuesday states two weeks from now and he has not yet said whether he will endorse anyone. So, all we can say tonight is that it's ended and that it ended much the way it began.

DEAN: And together we have the power to take back the White House in 2004 and that is exactly what we're going to do. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Howard Dean on the way out, in third place but, as we said, it's fair to say having changed much about these races, how they're run and how we view them, more on that now from CNN's Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY (voice-over): The end was quick. The rest took two years.

DEAN: Hi, I'm Howard Dean.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My name is Christina (unintelligible) nice to meet you.

DEAN: Where are you from?

CROWLEY: Voter by voter in the summer and fall of 2002, Howard Dean built a buzz on the trail but never even registered a blip on Washington's political radar until the party's winter meeting a year ago.

DEAN: What I want to know is why in the world the Democratic Party leadership is supporting the president's unilateral attack on Iraq.

CROWLEY: Dean tapped into a deep vein at the core of the party, Democrats angry about the war, the president who started it, the Democrats who let him. Soon, Dean was flying high on a sleepless summer tour. The candidate and his team mugged for the cameras in a behind-the-campaign-scenes look to be aired on "CNN PRESENTS."

DEAN: Haven't I done a great job managing Trippi's campaign for president? Aren't I...

JOE TRIPPI, FORMER DEAN CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Did you want to jump in there?

DEAN: No, no, no, no. I don't want to interrupt. You're the guy who ought to be on the cover of "Time."TRIPPI: Oh, God.

CROWLEY: The crowds were enormous, the money raised in a cutting edge Internet effort poured in. He was king of the Hustings, the biggest coffers, the best poll numbers, union support and more.

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And that's why I'm here to endorse Howard Dean as the next president. Thank you.

CROWLEY: They were landing big fish, mainstreamers, but even as they looked unstoppable Camp Dean was worried. Internet interest had leveled off. There were doubts about the Iowa organization and a year's old tape surfaced with Dean belittling the caucuses other poorly received statements got a second look.

DEAN: The capture of Saddam has not made America safer.

CROWLEY: The calendar was closing in and the candidate was getting mauled.

ANNOUNCER: Did you know Howard Dean called Medicare one of the worst federal programs ever?

CROWLEY: Dean seemed thrown, his complaints about rival attacks sounded like whining, the magic was fading.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi (unintelligible). I'm Deborah. I've come all the way from Oregon.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My that's a long ways Deborah.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know.CROWLEY: They hoped volunteers would bring out Iowa voters and they did for Kerry and Edwards.DEAN: We're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan and then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House.

CROWLEY: His New Hampshire polls collapsed under the controversy over Dean's concession performance. Finishing a distant second in New Hampshire, Dean replaced his campaign chief with a nuts and bolts guy but it was too late. The money and what was left of the magic was gone. Dean ended as he began campaigning voter to voter.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY: This evening the campaign put out a final blog on Dean for president saying that it has raised $50 million, more than any other Democratic presidential candidate and that it had, over time, 800,000 supporters signed up and signed on either online or elsewhere and to that we add this final number. Seventeen primaries or caucuses lost including the 18th primary, Americans Abroad, which he also lost -- Aaron.

BROWN: Candy, I could ask a really long and interesting and thoughtful question or I could just let you go get warm somewhere. I choose the latter.

CROWLEY: Thank you.

BROWN: You're welcome. Thank you for your hard work for all these many weeks.As we said at the top, Dr. Dean's departure today finally makes this all, for all intents and purposes at least, a two way race. That's what John Edwards said all along he wanted and now John Edwards has it. He also has less money, fewer delegates and not a whole lot of time to wage a Super Tuesday fight that literally spans the country. He has two weeks.Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN (voice-over): It wasn't a win in Wisconsin but Senator John Edwards is feeling the wind at his back, says a senior aide, after a strong second place finish.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think it was an extraordinary victory.

LOTHIAN: The strategy to keep up his momentum going into Super Tuesday with ten states up for grabs, talk even louder about the economy and trade, especially in states like Ohio, Georgia and New York, impacted by the loss of manufacturing jobs.

BILL DE BLASIO, EDWARDS' NY CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: His message on the economy is going to resonate in upstate New York very, very powerfully.

LOTHIAN: In what has essentially become a two man race, Senator Edwards, who opposes the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, will tell anyone who will listen that Senator John Kerry voted for it. It's become the hot issue.

EDWARDS: I think voters need to see the difference in our views.

LOTHIAN: But Senator Kerry, campaigning in Ohio Wednesday, argued they're both on the same page when it comes to trade. And, in what appeared to be an attempt to minimize the Edwards' trade strategy, he raised questions about when the Senator from North Carolina first voiced his opposition to NAFTA, an agreement some blame for the loss of jobs.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He wasn't in the Senate back then. I don't know where he registered his vote but it wasn't in the Senate.

LOTHIAN: The Kerry strategy, say aides, will be to deliver a positive message of change for the country, always willing to point out that he's won most of the contests so far and he's the best candidate to beat George Bush the battle for Super Tuesday few expected just days ago but political strategists say it's more an interesting story than a viable challenge.

HANK SHEINKOPF, POLITICAL STRATEGIST: Edwards certainly did well but not enough necessarily to make him a real contender here. The momentum is with John Kerry. He's got the delegates. He's got momentum. He's got the money.

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

LOTHIAN: Of course, Senator Edwards believes that he does have a shot in this race. He says he's not running to be vice president. He wants to be president of the United StatesAs for the money, the campaign believes that they are in good shape through Super Tuesday and, in fact, continue to raise money. Senator Edwards was in New York tonight for a fund-raiser and so far since last night they've been able to raise more than $300,000 -- Aaron.

BROWN: Here's a problem I think for the campaign. They've got California and New York, two very expensive media markets. He has been able to cherry-pick to some degree his way around the country finding good spots. He probably can't do that as much anymore. Is he going to try and campaign across the country over the next two weeks?

LOTHIAN: Well, what the campaign really wants to do is focus on the critical states where they can hit those markets, where workers have been laid off from their jobs.

BROWN: Ohio.

LOTHIAN: Ohio and Georgia as well, even in Minnesota. Those are the places where clearly they've lost jobs. Those are the places they're going to campaign. But they have to campaign in those other states as well and some strategists believe that if they can't win in California and they can't win in New York then it pretty much is over for him.BROWN: Thank you, Dan. You probably have to jump on a plane but I just want you to know I got through this segment without interrupting you tonight.

LOTHIAN: Thank you.

BROWN: We're one ahead of where we were 24 hours ago.

LOTHIAN: Thank you very much.

BROWN: I apologize for that last night.The Democrats have certainly benefited from a less than stellar period for the White House. Last week an important economic adviser to the president seemed to suggest that the outsourcing of jobs, which is a very nice way of saying American jobs are being shipped overseas, was in the long run a good thing for the country, not exactly a campaign slogan for an incumbent president.The president tried to clean up that mess last week and today he tried to clean up that mess last week and today he tried to clean up another. A report by the White House on how many jobs it expects will be created in the next year, 2.6 million, a wonderful number if you believe.Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): In the oval office, no direct answer when asked if he stands by a prediction that the economy will create 2.6 million new jobs this year.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think the economy is growing and I think it's going to get stronger.

KING: That upbeat prediction of 2.6 million new jobs is from a White House report issued just nine days ago. The treasury and commerce secretaries were first to distance themselves from the number, leading six Senate Democrats to write Mr. Bush asking for "a meaningful jobs prediction that all Americans, including your own cabinet, would find credible." Mr. Bush's spokesman was reminded the election year report carried the president's signature and presumably his endorsement.

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I mean you're trying to get in here to get me to answer questions that are trying to trap me into certain things.

KING: Democratic front-runner John Kerry says it is hardly the first time administration jobs predictions have failed the credibility test.

KERRY: The promised in the first tax cut they'd create 500,000 jobs. They lost a million or more. In the next tax cut, they promised another 800,000 jobs. They lost another two million.

KING: The Iraq War is another credibility challenge.

BUSH: Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda.

KING: This scathing ad by a liberal group among the attacks suggesting the president hyped the evidence.

BUSH: Members of Congress looked at the same intelligence and they saw a danger. The United Nations Security Council looked at the intelligence and it saw a danger. We reached a reasonable conclusion that Saddam Hussein was a danger.

KING: Fifty-one percent of Americans in a new CNN poll say they approve of how Mr. Bush is handling his job, down from 60 percent six weeks ago, and 55 percent consider Mr. Bush honest and trustworthy, a low point for his presidency. The administration chalks it all up to Democratic campaign attacks.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: But some Republicans are getting a little nervous and these Republicans think it is now well past time for the president to tap his one huge advantage in this race, his campaign war chest. They, Aaron, think the White House should start spending money on campaign ads but the Bush-Cheney team says not yet. They want to wait one week, maybe two more, just to see if Senator Kerry stumbles. 

BROWN: Well, what is fascinating to me because I love this stuff is that this is not a president and not a White House that likes to have someone else set the agenda. They want to be on the offense. They're the incumbent. They ought to be on the offense in many ways and yet for months now it seems, whether it's Iraq, the economy, the rest, they have been playing defense and not playing it especially well.

KING: Much rather play defense in February than in October but you are exactly right. Today they were trying to explain this economic report away by saying it's an economic forecast. It was necessary for the budget. Numbers change over time. It wasn't meant to be a, you know, put it in cement number for the campaign. But they also have to know at this White House everything they say and do in this year will be viewed in a political context, so that argument simply didn't carry much weight, especially with the Democrats.

BROWN: Do you expect that they will try out the ads soon? I saw a Dick Morris column today say they better do it soon because if they don't John Kerry will have defined himself.

KING: They will do this much soon. The president will have an event here at the White House on the economy tomorrow. They will try to change the story, at least a little bit. He will begin to travel more aggressively.They say it could be a waste of money. They were ready to launch those ads as early as the end of this week. They want to wait a little bit longer. Whether they will wait two weeks and give Senator Edwards that long is the subject of debate. Most Bush aides say wait. Don't waste the money. But again many outside advisers are looking at all these poll numbers and saying spend a little now.

BROWN: Well, when you got as much as they have they can waste a little. John, thank you very much, our Senior White House Correspondent John King, good to have him with us tonight.Ahead on the program another tough day in Iraq, while at the same time the United States raids net more alleged members of al Qaeda.And later, more in our series called look at it this way, the work of still photographers around the country, tonight life behind bars when you are only a kid.From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Maybe it should by now but they never look routine to us those names.In Iraq today, a multinational coalition based south of Baghdad was the target of a brazen attack. Two suicide bombers in separate vehicles tried to run through the gate at the base this morning as parents in the area were taking their children to school. At least eight Iraqi civilians were killed, five of them children, dozens of people hurt, including 12 coalition soldiers. The bad guys took a hit as well today. The U.S. military says it captured seven militants in the raid, all with suspected links to al Qaeda, from the Pentagon tonight CNN's Jamie McIntyre.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): The raid, conducted by soldiers of the 4th Infantry Division, was aimed at taking down an anti-coalition cell in Baquba, an Iraqi city in the heart of the so-called Sunni Triangle where opposition to the U.S. remains strong.According to the U.S. military, 22 people were detained, including seven suspects who were specifically targeted and are believed to have links to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda terrorist network.

COL. WILLIAM ADAMSON, U.S. ARMY: This morning in Baquba we conducted a series of raids to detain people associated with a terrorist group with ties to al Qaeda. We suspected that they were responsible for a suicide car bombing in Baquba on 15 January.

MCINTYRE: Suicide attacks, like the one that rocked the Polish military base south of Baghdad Wednesday, are thought to be closer to the MO of al Qaeda fanatics rather than former Iraqi regime members.Since earlier this month when the coalition authority released the contents of a seized document, reportedly written by top al Qaeda operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, U.S. officials have been blaming more of the violence on outside agitators.

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: There are also terrorists that are coming in from other countries across the Iranian border, the Syrian border, and they're determined to have a radical regime, a regime that is -- would be supportive of Osama bin Laden and people of that ilk.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: And, Aaron, as you noted, Iraqi civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence but even though many Iraqis are fearful the U.S. says that many are still helping, providing daily leads on where opponents of the U.S. are hiding.And this week the U.S. asked for more help distributing a new most wanted list of 32 people suspected of running the insurgency with rewards ranging from $20,000 to $1 million for their capture -- Aaron.

BROWN: This is on a different front. Do you detect at the Pentagon any concern that the Americans or the coalition have lost control or are losing control of the political situation there? 

MCINTYRE: I think there's a real concern that they not lose the support of the Iraqi people and the fact that Iraqis are truly concerned about their security they're very anxious to get this turnover to the Iraqi government and get the Iraqis in charge but there's a real concern about how that's going to go. I think that's fair to say.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, good to see you again.A few more items from around the world now, beginning in Beirut with the echoes of another time. Terry Waite came to inspect refugee camps as part of a fact-finding mission, the first time he set foot in Lebanon since his kidnapping 16 years ago. Mr. Waite, you may recall, was held hostage for nearly five years by a then shadowy group called the Islamic Jihad.Haiti next where rioting or not there are no plans for the international community tonight, at least, to send troops or police to sort things out, this according to Secretary of State Powell who said Haitians must reach a political settlement before other countries step in.Northeast Iran, an inferno, runaway rail cars full of fuel caught fire then exploded outside a city of 170,000 people. At least 200 people have died, many of them firefighters, some of them residents of mud homes knocked down from the explosion.Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, the priest abuse problem and what the head of the largest diocese in the country has to say about a report that traces the problem back 70 years, a break first.This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In San Francisco, close to 3,000 gay couples have now married, state law notwithstanding, in almost a week. In a typical day, city officials in San Francisco might marry 30 straight couples. These days are anything but typical.Today, the president said he was troubled by what is unfolding in San Francisco and repeated his belief that marriage should be limited to straight couples. Others who share that belief have filed legal challenges to stop the San Francisco marriages. Yesterday, two judges refused rulings for now and, so today, the wedding bells rang again.Here's CNN's David Mattingly.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After 11 and a half years of togetherness, Bill Hinson and Dan Johnson never dared dream that they'd one day be allowed to marry and in church. All it took was the profound combination of a marriage license and a willing Methodist minister. Now into their second day anniversary, Bill who has AIDS and Dan who is HIV positive, can't wait for that inevitable question the next time they're at the hospital.

BILL HINSON, NEWLYWED: Are you family? Yes, we are. We're family now and that makes a big difference in itself.

DAN JOHNSON, NEWLYWED: Yes, it does.

MATTINGLY (on camera): They're just one of thousands of couples now exploring the myriad of potential changes to their private lives after a very public display of legal defiance. The city of San Francisco last week opened the door to same-sex couples. It has since handed out more than 2,800 marriage licenses and all the benefits that go along with them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The ability to inherit property, my pension at work, those are things that, you know, married couples, heterosexual married couples don't have to worry about.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): But many of these soon to be married couples say they are cautiously avoiding any lasting financial decisions, worried that what was suddenly given to them could suddenly disappear.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not congratulations?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, don't rely on it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, why not?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It might not, it might not last you very long.

MATTINGLY: Robert Tyler represents the Alliance Defense Fund, one group taking the city to court and seeking to roll back the entire wave of marriage licenses issued to same-sex couples. He is armed with California law, defining marriage strictly between one man and one woman.

ROGER TYLER, ATTORNEY, ALLIANCE DEFENSE FUND: What we are doing is right that we are on the right side of the law and the mayor is on the wrong side of the law.

MATTINGLY: And that leaves thousands of married couples in legal limbo, unable to celebrate a victory, unwilling to let it go.

HINSON: Not without a fight, you know.

JOHNSON: We're going to (unintelligible).

HINSON: (Unintelligible) to get married and it really meant a lot and I don't want that taken away now.

JOHNSON: It wouldn't be right.

HINSON: It wouldn't be right.

MATTINGLY: Looming court showdowns will eventually decide what is right for same-sex couples in California and who is on the right side of the law.David Mattingly, CNN San Francisco.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: This week the scope of the sex abuse scandal in the Catholic Church came into clearer focus. First came a draft of a nationwide survey drawing on 52 years of church records. It found that more than 11,000 allegations were made against more than 4,000 priests. That's the big picture.Yesterday, the lens narrowed a bit when the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Los Angeles released its own study of the problem within its clergy, just L.A. It found 656 allegations leveled at 244 priests and other church workers since the 1930s. How complete this report is remains an open question and subject to some controversy but it does remain the best evidence to date. Cardinal Roger Mahoney compiled the report and spoke to us yesterday about what he found.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Sir, if someone had said to you five years ago that since the 1930s there have been 650-700 cases of abuse in the archdiocese would you have been surprised by that number?

CARDINAL ROGER MAHONEY, ROMAN CATHOLIC ARCHDIOCESE OF LOS ANGELES: Well, it covers 73 years and these are accusations, 656 accusations. Obviously, even one is too many.But given the population of this area, the thousands of priests who have served here, it actually is higher than I would like, but it doesn't surprise me. 

BROWN: It doesn't seem to you, again, acknowledging, as you have, that even one is too many, this number doesn't strike you as a large number? Do you think it's a complete number? 

MAHONEY: Well, I think it's as complete as we can get. Keep in mind, of that number, we only learned of 522 of these accusations in the last two years. And so the reporting prior to that would never indicate that there would have been this many incidents. And we also learned from this report that they occurred primarily in the 1950s, '60s, and '70s, and early '80s. And then there's a rapid decline from that point on. 

BROWN: Do you think there was a point then -- and despite how we tend to look at this, these days, that there was a point in the early '80s, somewhere between maybe 1975 and 1985, when -- you'll excuse the expression -- the church seemed to get it? 

MAHONEY: Well, I think that, as our report points out, there was an evolution of understanding how to deal with this problem. And so, prior to 1985, it was looked upon as a moral lapse. And then psychologists, they began offering their recommendations. And it really wasn't until 1985 that the church in general understood, this is far more serious than anybody had thought before. And the treatment modalities, they just were inadequate. And so that's what began the development of formal policies in diocese that got ever more strict moving through the years up to 2002. 

BROWN: One of the things that, in covering this story, we have heard any number of times from people that -- in some cases, victims, in some cases, observers of it all -- is that, while individual priests clearly are being held accountable now -- whether they were before is another matter -- that their bosses, people like yourself, are not being held accountable. Do you agree with that? 

MAHONEY: Well, and our report gets into that. We pull no punches in our report that we've issued today. And we acknowledge the mistakes that were made. We actually give examples. We take cases and we go through them one by one and show where errors were made, and some of them by my predecessors, some of them by me. And so I've again had to acknowledge those mistakes and issue those apologies. But also, since we've named all the names in our report, we're also hopeful that there are other victims out there, they will come forward. We don't see this as the end of the process, but we think it's a helpful moment in the process. And so if there are people who need counseling, who need spiritual, pastoral care, please call us. We really want you to come forward. 

BROWN: Just two more things, sir. Just, in your view, then, an apology coming from you is enough accountability, is adequate accountability? No more than that is required? 

MAHONEY: No, there are actually a number of things that have to go together. An apology, as I say in my cover letter, is of itself insufficient. What steps have been put in place? What corrections have been made? And I think that our diocese, Archdiocese of Los Angeles, as well as diocese across the country, have taken this very seriously. And our oversight board has 13 members now; 11 of those are laypeople. Parents of abused children are on it. A victim is on it. They have taken this over now, and they are the ones that do the principal investigating. They are the ones that make the recommendations and decisions on how we're going to deal with this. So, a lot of things have happened for the good because of the mistakes we made in the past. 

BROWN: Now, Cardinal, none of this can be very pleasant to talk about or think about or deal with. We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you. 

MAHONEY: Thank you very much, Aaron. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: And we talked to the cardinal yesterday. Still to come on the program tonight, we go back to politics, look at how the landscape has changed. Is it as dramatic as it seemed 24 hours ago? Weigh in on that after the break. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Back to the top, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and a paradox, if you will. Last night, in Wisconsin, voters who say beet beating George Bush is key went 2-1 for John Kerry. But independents, without whom no Democrat can beat George Bush, went heavily for Edwards. Writing about it in "Slate" magazine, Wil Saletan put it this way: "I'd rather be Kerry than Edwards," he writes, "but if I were, I'd pray the folks in the first group don't find out about the folks in the second."Mr. Saletan joins us from Washington tonight, also in Washington, Republican strategist Doug MacKinnon. And we're pleased to have them both. Wil, let me start with you here.You make the argument that it's certainly possible for Senator Edwards to win this thing, but, it seems to me, he needs a dramatic day two weeks from now, a really big day two weeks from now. Do you agree with that? 

WILLIAM SALETAN, SLATE.COM: Yes, absolutely. The Edwards people have gone a long way by saying, all we have to do is come in a close third here or a close second, and we just have to get to a one-on-one. Well, now they have their one-on-one. Now they've got to win. They've got to win because the media won't stand for them losing anymore, and they've got to win because the delegates -- there are so many delegates on stake on March 2, that if Edwards doesn't get at least get about half of those, he's finished numerically. 

BROWN: And just my argument here is, it's not enough to cherry- pick a win in Georgia and maybe sneak really something close in Ohio. You need that big night, where you -- the headline isn't ambiguous. 

SALETAN: Yes, that's exactly right. You can't keep surpassing expectations, because, every time you surpass expectations, the expectations rise. Now the expectations are no longer that a good second is good enough. Now the expectations are, if you say you can beat Kerry, beat him now, March 2. 

BROWN: Doug, I'm curious how a Republican looking at all of this sees it. Is it, in some sense, bad for your guys, the Republican guys, that this thing clearly is going to go on for another couple weeks? 

DOUG MACKINNON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Yes, in a sense, it is. Kerry's going to get more seasoned as the race goes on. But I don't see how Edwards is going to have a big night two weeks from now, ultimately. Again, like you said, maybe you can find Georgia for him. I doubt Ohio. I doubt anyplace else. And he can't go anywhere after that's over. So we're still focused on Kerry. He's still the front- runner. It's still his race to lose. I imagine he's going to stay the front-runner, and then we'll deal with him. 

BROWN: If you were advising Senator Edwards now, would you tell him to throw a haymaker at John Kerry or to behave himself and come out of this as having performed really well and look to the tomorrow of four years from now? 

MACKINNON: Yes, John Kerry has actually been very clever.I mean -- I'm sorry. John Edwards has been very clever about this whole thing. He decided not to run for reelection in North Carolina, I think, because he did the math down there, realized he was not going to win, realized that Bush is going to take that state strongly in 2004 in November, decided, what the heck, why don't I throw myself into the presidential ring? It's a great move. He's gotten great publicity out of this thing. And what's going to happen is, yes, he's not going to throw a haymaker at John Kerry, because, ultimately, he would like to be the vice president. They're never going to talk about that. No one's going to admit that. But the fact of the matter is, he's got no place to go after this race. And if he's not the vice president, what's he going to do politically? 

BROWN: Wil, both candidates have talked a lot about electability, that they're the ones that can beat George Bush. And I'll ask both of you this question. I'm curious, though, first with you. Who do you think the Bushies worry about most? 

SALETAN: Well, first of all, I wouldn't look to the Bushies to tell you who's actually more electable.I remember, in the first Bush White House, there were a lot of people who were really happy, looking forward to facing Bill Clinton. They said he'd be easy to beat because of his women problems. Well, they learned the hard way they were mistaken. So their judgment isn't necessarily the best about this. I think that, in some ways, if you look at the exit polls, John Edwards is stronger than Kerry is with independents and with crossover Republicans. But, if you look at the race the way that the Republicans would have to run it against the two candidates, against Edwards, they could run the campaign they wanted to run against Dean, which is, Bush is the strong national security president. Against Kerry, they've got to run on all this social liberal stuff, which looks petty in a time of economic trouble and terrorism. 

BROWN: Doug, do you agree they'd rather run against Senator Edwards, who looks somewhat younger than he is and doesn't have that Vietnam history in his background and the rest? 

MACKINNON: Yes. I mean, now that Wil's defined my judgment a little bit on this, I'm going to say that's exactly right. Kerry is ultimately still a more seasoned candidate. He's been through some tough races. He's -- what -- someone said he put the grave in gravitas, but he does have some gravitas. He has been there for over 20 years in the public arena. And Edwards is fairly new at this. He was a trial lawyer before getting into this. And, again, he decided he didn't want to run for reelection in North Carolina, where he would probably lose. So, if you look at that, for me, as a Republican, I would much rather go against John Edwards than John Kerry. The fact of the matter is, we're probably going to get John Kerry. And that's going to be decided in two weeks. BROWN: It will be an interesting run. And I hope you guys both will come back and talk about it as we go along. Thank you very much. 

MACKINNON: Would love to. Thanks, Aaron. 

SALETAN: Thanks, Aaron. 

BROWN: Thank you, guys.Before we go to break, a few other stories that made news today around the country, beginning in Phoenix, where authorities today discovered two houses harboring at least 100 undocumented immigrants between them. Two other so-called drop houses were also found in and around Phoenix in recent days, at least 288 illegal immigrants arrested in all, making this one of the busiest weeks in memory, according to immigration officials. Another allegation of rape involving a University of Colorado football player emerged today. A woman who worked in the school's athletic department reported the alleged assault in the year 2001. Today, Boulder Police released a report as part of an open records request from news organizations. It's the fifth allegation of assault by a C.U. player or recruit. Former place kicker Katie Hnida said in a magazine article this week that she was raped by a teammate in 1999. California authorities have arrested the mother of a 17-year-old boy who discovered he was allegedly abducted from Canada 14 years ago. He discovered this when he saw his own picture on a missing children's Web site. The photo was taken when he was 3, living with his father, who had custody of him at the time. Police say the boy's mother didn't return him after a court-ordered visit and instead fled the country. She's now awaiting extradition to Canada on child abduction charges. Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT tonight, we will, of course, check morning papers. Be patient. But, up next, behind bars in still life among children. This is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Segment seven is where we proudly wear our love for still photos on our sleeve. Tonight, the pictures take us behind bars, where more than 100,000 juveniles are spending part of their childhood; 14,000 of them are in adult jails or prisons in the country. Photographer Joseph Rodriguez followed a dozen young people through the twists and turns of the criminal justice system in Northern California, a journey documented in his book "Juvenile," a journey he took himself before he picked up a camera. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

JOSEPH RODRIGUEZ, PHOTOGRAPHER: When I was first arrested myself as a juvenile and went to Rikers Island, I remember what that experience was like. It was really daunting and very difficult. The thought of going back to tell this story has stayed with me for many, many years. I received a fellowship to work closely with the people at the Pacific News Service out in San Francisco that goes into all these juvenile halls throughout the Bay area. So I wanted to sort of document some of their work, but also meet some of the teenagers that they were working with. I always thought about, well, what happens to these kids? What happens to them once they get into the system and what happens to them after they come out? For the most part, a lot of these kids really want to be heard. And they need someone to listen to them and take some time and tell their story. So it really was very much about just being there on a regular basis. Katrina (ph) has been in the system ever since she was 12, I believe. And her parents were also in the system. So she's been pretty much on her own. And Katrina was very lucky to have a public defender who really cared for her. That's Jose (ph), who's getting ready to go to court the day before. And Chris DeGannon (ph), his public defender, is in that room, is in the interview with him. And he's really stressing about, he doesn't know if he can make it. He had stolen a soda from a candy store. And because they have this "three strikes, you're out" penalty in California, I believe he had already had a strike, and this was going to be his second strike. You see him sitting at the table there with his grandmother, Chris DeGannon, his probation officer, and his mental health worker. And that's what these kids need in the system. It's like a village. You need a village to save a child. It's not just one person. It's not just one aspect that's going to save a kid. Lance's (ph) journey was long and hard. He basically, you know, at the age of 5 or 6, was already in the system. And then, as he became older, he came out and then got into more trouble. He lived in an African American community. Being the only white kid in the neighborhood, he really had to sort of prove himself. And then, when he became about 16, 17 years old, he was arrested for kidnapping. And a judge gave him a break. And he saw that as a revelation for him, and he turned himself around. And he leaves San Francisco, moves back to San Andreas, California, where his mom is living, and bonds with her and tries to change his life and sort of go back into having his own family with Sarah (ph) and having two children, and then going full circle and becoming a counselor himself for troubled teens. So, I think that that's -- for me, that's what it was all about, and to see that some kids can actually turn themselves around with the right kind of support, that they need even more help than they're getting today. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Boy, is that a haunting end photo. We'll check morning papers after the break. We'll be right back. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

(ROOSTER CROWING) 

BROWN: Okeydoke, time to check morning papers from around the country and around the world.Couple of interesting things in them. And we'll get to the interesting things after we deal with "The International Herald Tribune." That was a little joke. I like this story. It will be in a lot of papers tomorrow. "Scientists Claim Bush Bends Data. Distortions Are Said to Serve Policy Goals." It's a very prestigious group of Nobel laureates making this charge, and it's an uncomfortable one for the White House to deal with, dealing with things like the ozone layer and that sort of thing. And we'll see if that story has any legs tomorrow. 

That's in "The International Herald Tribune." Forget that. I was going to do something there, but I changed my mind. OK, a lot of front pages are dealing with the president's backing off on the jobs report. It's interesting to see how they do it. "President Retreats" is the word 

"The Chattanooga Times Free Press" uses, "Retreats On New Jobs Prediction. Democrats Use Optimistic 2.6 Million Figure as Ammunition in Battle Over the Economy." That's who they do it.""The Oregonian." "President Backs Off Forecast For Jobs. The Bush Administration Remains Optimistic About Employment, a Political Target For Democrats." Pretty similar there. Howard Dean -- I almost said John Dean. Larry did that last night, too. "Howard Dean Ends Campaign For White House" also on the front page. He had a lot of support in Oregon, or so it seemed. And so that's a good front-page story for them. It's front-page in most places.

"San Francisco Chronicle." "Bush Troubled by San Francisco Decree on Same-Sex Marriage." I'd watch carefully what's happening in San Francisco, where licenses are being issued, even though the law states otherwise. "Bush Backs Off Jobs Forecast. President Makes Second Embarrassing Retreat in a Week." That's the way "The San Francisco Chronicle" did it.Tell me again on time? Twenty-five.OK, I'll do this quickly. Look at this picture of Howard Dean, OK, in "The San Francisco Chronicle" quickly. Kind of a nice picture. Smiling, OK? Here's how "The Washington Times," a paper somewhat less sympathetic, I would say, to Governor Dean -- you can't really see this picture. "Dean Drops Out of Race." But it's a kind of angry Howard Dean picture.Oh, it's too bad we didn't get to that. We'll do this one quickly. 

"The North Platte Bulletin" in North Platte, Nebraska, that would be; "36 Days on Hell's Island." It's the story of Iwo Jima told by two local people.The weather in Chicago tomorrow is "hallelujah." Sounds good to me.We'll wrap up the day in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Before we go tonight, a recap of our top story.Howard Dean dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. He promised to keep working to reshape the party and help the eventual nominee defeat President Bush come fall.Tomorrow on this program, "On the Rise" with Jessica Alpert- Goldman, the owner, fashion designer, and self-described handbag guru of the world, according to Jess. These are not your grandmas' pocketbooks. That's tomorrow night on NEWSNIGHT "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" coming up next for most of you.We'll see you tomorrow at 10:00 Eastern time. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT. 

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