A Scramble for Republicans in Wake of Foley Resignation
By Mara Lee
Scripps Howard News Service
Washington (SHNS) -- The resignation Friday of GOP Congressman Mark Foley in a sex scandal adds to the woes of Republicans already fearing that voters might knock them out of power in the House in elections less than six weeks away.
Democrats need to win 15 seats to take over, and Foley's Florida seat was considered safe for Republicans _ until Friday, when the six-term lawmaker quit amid reports that he sent sexually explicit Internet messages to teens who worked as congressional pages.
Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst with the Rothenberg Political Report, said that, around the country, "Republicans are already on the defensive. This just adds to their list of headaches."
The Rothenberg Political Report was predicting a Democratic gain of 15 to 20 seats before the resignation.
Tom Riehle, a partner at the polling firm RT Strategies, said this race was not on its list of 30 contests that could change the majority in the House. Now, his company will be polling in the district for its Majority Watch poll, which will be released in mid-October.
He said that when a Congress member has been in office for a long time and has voter loyalty, "quite often, the only thing that can unseat him or her is a personal scandal."
Riehle said Rep. Don Sherwood, R-Pa., is facing a similar problem, because of news coverage of his affair with a woman who is 30 years his junior. Sherwood polled at 43 percent, and his opponent at 50 percent in the Majority Watch poll.
Riehle, who has worked for Democrats before founding the bipartisan firm, said the Florida election calculus is complicated.
"They didn't recruit an A-level candidate on the Democrat side, but it's very late to recruit an A-level candidate on the Republican side."
GOP leaders were considering a Republican statehouse representative from the region, but did not name Foley's replacement Friday.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee praised its candidate, Tim Mahoney, as a serious contender.
Mahoney "has been conducting a vigorous campaign for more than a year and running television ads for almost a month. He has raised over $700,000 and he's personally donated an additional $349,000," read a memo released by the DCCC communications department. "In the latest poll in the district, conducted by (Democratic pollsters) Hamilton Beattie and completed September 14th, Foley was under 50 percent."
Under Florida election law, it's too late for Foley's name to be removed from the ballot. But all votes for him will go to the Republican nominee who replaces him.
University of Virginia political-science professor Larry Sabato said the Republican would have a good chance to win, but he wondered if people would want to vote for Foley, even knowing he's not the nominee. He called it "the yuck factor."
He predicted the scandal would not taint other Republican incumbents and pointed out that former Rep. Duke Cunningham, R-Calif., who went to prison for taking bribes, was replaced in a special election by another Republican who was working as a lobbyist.
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Dana Bash "... it is clear that Congressman Foley was clearly not honest ... "
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Preventing Pelosi
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_471818.html
The question about the November elections isn't whether the Republicans will lose seats but how many they will lose. And as fall begins, the forecasts are getting bleak: If Republicans lose 15 House seats, they will lose their majority as well.
Republican Hill staffers are eyeing the exits, looking to get out while the getting's good. They may be too late: K Street lobbying shops are hiring Democrats in anticipation of a shift in power.
Republicans are doing better in the Senate. They are likely to lose seats there but probably not their majority.
But House Republicans face a daunting national political environment. The continued fighting in Iraq, along with the absence of a clear path to victory, has demoralized Republicans and angered Democrats. It has soured the public mood even on seemingly unrelated issues.
Some Republicans have drawn hope from the fact that forecasters thought they would lose seats in 2002 and turned out to be wrong. But most of the poll numbers looked worse for Republicans in August 2006 than they did in August 2002.
In 2002, 51 percent of Americans thought the country was "on the wrong track" while 43 percent thought we were headed "in the right direction." That eight-point gap has ballooned to 38 points: Now 66 percent of the public thinks we're on the wrong track, compared with 28 percent who think the opposite.
1015
I also read a poll today stating only 35% of voters knew Senator Menendez was their incumbent.
Poll: Voters split on Kean, Menendez
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15569956.htm
By Leonard N. Fleming
Inquirer Staff Writer
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More coverage of elections in New Jersey
The bitterly fought New Jersey Senate race between U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez and his Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr., remains a dead heat, despite a federal probe into a lease deal involving the Democratic lawmaker, a new poll showed yesterday.
The Quinnipiac University poll, which surveyed 1,233 registered voters, underscored the pivotal role that independents will play in a highly volatile contest between two largely unknown candidates that has been focused on ethics and the Iraq war.
Independents are evenly split on whom they will support, and 37 percent of them say they could change their mind before Election Day, the poll showed. Although Democrats have done well with independents in recent years, they could help elect a Republican for the first time since 1972.
The race will "come right down to the independent voters" and neither candidate has a clear majority yet, said Clay F. Richards, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute based in Connecticut.
Kean, a state senator from Union County and son of a former popular governor, holds a 48 percent to 45 percent lead among likely voters over Menendez, a former Hudson County congressman who was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Corzine in January. The survey included 688 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.7 percent - meaning the race is a virtual tie.
The poll indicates that the campaign strategies - Kean painting his opponent as unethical, and Menendez linking his challenger to President Bush and the Iraq war - are having an impact.
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I am tired of this mess. Teens are still killing each other because they can. There are plenty of guns around and Bush doesn't care. The Brady Bill was proven effective. Yet, the current majority Republicans have thrown all caution out with their politicking for their power base. This Party does not care about the people of this nation, they only care about what they can get out of this country and it's military. They are all 'power players' vs. legislators and statesmen/wemen.
Statement of Brady President Paul Helmke On House Passage Of Bill That Protects Gun Dealers That Help Arm Criminals
http://www.bradycampaign.org/media/?pagename=release&release=796
Washington, D.C. - Paul Helmke, President of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, issued the following statement:
“The United States House of Representatives today chose to pass special interest legislation that benefits the law-breaking gun pushers who make money by selling firearms that end up in the hands of killers, muggers and thieves. They ignored the concerns of our nation’s Mayors and law enforcement leaders who opposed this awful bill.
“One must ask the question: When does this end in our country? How many children and police officers must die before our elected members of Congress stop doing the bidding of the gun lobby? Today in Pennsylvania, the families of the victims of gun violence drove for hours to get to the state Capitol to ask for help. In New York, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, my home city of Fort Wayne, Indiana and cities all over America, the people want their leaders to get the illegal guns off the streets.
“In Washington, D.C., instead of listening to all of those voices, a loud message was sent to the gun traffickers: Keep the guns coming. That’s a frightening message.”
enough
