Monday, March 15, 2004

New Prime Minister Elected in Spain; Break in Ohio Sniper Case

New Prime Minister Elected in Spain; Break in Ohio Sniper Case

Aired March 15, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: We meet again from Baghdad. Behind us is called the Water Palace. There are a lot of palaces here and that one was built by Saddam for his sons as a hunting lodge. It isn't used that way anymore.We spent the last two and a half days traveling with General John Abizaid. General Abizaid is responsible for Iraq and Afghanistan, for Pakistan, for the Horn of Africa, what well may be the most dangerous and important part of the world we live in today and you'll hear the general's candid remarks about the military and the political situation at length tonight.In the general's view we are entering a very dangerous period in Iraq for both the Americans and the Iraqis but Iraq today is not simply a military story and so tonight you will also see the building blocks of democracy being constructed and you'll meet some of the young Americans who are helped doing the building.There's no guarantee how that turns out that these building blocks will blossom into a full democracy or even what democracy in this part of the world means. We can't know that yet and we won't know that for some time but you'll see the start and the start matters.We'll do that in a bit tonight but first, as we always do, we begin the program with the whip and for that we go to Anderson Cooper in New York.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Aaron thanks very much, back to you shortly.The whip begins with repercussions in Spain, Washington and around the world from the bombings in Madrid, Spain first and CNN's Diana Muriel, Diana, a headline.

DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The investigation into Thursday's bombings here in Madrid continues, evidence emerging of a link between one of the men detained by Spanish authorities here last week and the leader of an al Qaeda cell operating in Spain. That man, the leader of that cell, already extradited to Morocco by the Spanish authorities in connection with his alleged involvement with the Casablanca terrorist attack last May.

COOPER: Diana, back to you. On to the complications for the war on terror being felt keenly today, at the White House CNN's Dana Bash with that side of the story and a headline -- Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Anderson, the election results in Spain certainly came as a surprise here at the White House. Nevertheless, the president did place a call to the prime minister elect in Spain telling him what aides told us all day long which is that he cannot allow his election to let the terrorists think they won -- Anderson.

COOPER: Well, next to one of the birth places of the American nuclear arsenal for a display of some pieces of Libya's own Manhattan Project, CNN's David Ensor with the headline from there -- David

.DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: The Bush administration invited reporters to Tennessee for a first look at some of the nuclear materials flown out of Libya, including nuclear materials from the black market network of Dr. AQ Khan of Pakistan. We'll show them to you.

COOPER: And finally a break in the case of the sniper who has been terrorizing drivers along a stretch of Ohio highway. CNN's Eric Phillips is covering developments as they unfold, Eric a headline from you please.

ERIC PHILLIPS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Anderson, it's been ten months, 24 shootings, and tonight authorities name one suspect in the Ohio highway sniper shootings but along with the announcement comes a serious warning for the public.

COOPER: All right, Eric, back to you. Thanks to all of you. We'll be back to you shortly.Also ahead on the program tonight we'll go back to Iraq for Aaron's report on the American men and women who are working hard to bring order out of chaos.And later, Aaron's interview with the man in charge of the military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan General John Abizaid and his thoughts on the continuing dangers there, all that to come in the hour ahead.We begin in Spain where effects of the bombings last week are being felt in two ways tonight, the first personal. It is familial and to Americans intensely familiar. Nearly every Spaniard, it seems, knows someone or someone who knew someone who died on Thursday.The second effect is political and may, in fact, stem from the first. Spain's part in the occupation of Iraq never enjoyed much popular support. Despite that the ruling party was expected to survive the election, that is until the bombs started going off. Now it's a terrifying new world for Spain and a new complication for the White House. Here again, CNN's Diana Muriel. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MURIEL (voice-over): Spain has voted for change. In a shock result, the Socialist Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will become prime minister.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I expected the Socialist Party to do well but not to actually win the election.

MURIEL: Many here believe his success is down to the way in which the outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, handled the continuing investigation into Thursday's terror bombings in Madrid. Aznar was quick to blame the armed Basque separatist group ETA but evidence now points to the possible involvement of Islamic extremists.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): People when they found out how the government was manipulating the information about the attack they went out to vote against that.

MURIEL: Now Zapatero must deliver on his election promises and he was quick to repeat his pledge to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): Spain has to solve her own problems like ETA before going out to solve anyone else's.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): People think if we get the troops out of Iraq there won't be any more attacks here.

MURIEL: Whether or not the Madrid train bombings are related to Spain's involvement in the war in Iraq the threat of terrorism is one Zapatero will have to face. This change in administration comes at a time when Spain is still struggling to recover from the tragic events of last week the signs of mourning still evident throughout the capital.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MURIEL: Even now in the early hours of the morning, Spaniards still come to this makeshift shrine at the Central Madrid Station where so many of the victims died to stand and weep -- Anderson.

COOPER: Diana, where does the investigation now stand? What is the latest?

MURIEL: The latest that we're hearing is that there are links emerging between one of the five men detained by the Spanish authorities over the weekend. His name is Jamal Zugam (ph) a 31-year- old builder. Police were led to him by the contents of an unexploded bomb that was in a backpack and a telephone that was in there and a calling card that was in there.The investigation, CNN has learned, has made links between this man and his friend a man called (unintelligible). Now he is -- his brother has been extradited to Morocco by Spanish authorities. He is suspected of being involved in the Casablanca terrorist attack of May 16th last year when more than 30 people were killed. So there appear to be links between some of the men detained by the authorities here and previous terrorist attacks -- Anderson.

COOPER: All right, Diana Muriel in Madrid thank you.As we said, President Bush has lost a staunch ally in Mr. Aznar or as a columnist today put it, as of Sunday Spain has rejoined Old Europe.Here's CNN's Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, what does the Spanish election do to your coalition in Iraq, sir?BASH (voice-over): President Bush did not answer questions about the Spanish election upset that surprised the White House but he privately instructed aides on the message of the day the defeat of a key ally in Iraq and against terror does not mean victory for terrorists.

J. ADAM ERELI, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: The party leader Mr. Zapatero Rodriguez has said his first priority would be fighting terror.

BASH: Trying to put the best face on things, Mr. Bush placed a brief congratulatory call to Spain's new prime minister elect. The conversation was limited to combating terrorism.A year ago, Spain's current Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was one of a handful of European leaders to buck opposition at home and the United Nations. He supported the U.S.-led war in Iraq and sent 1,300 troops.

JOSE LUIS RODRIGUEZ ZAPATERO, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER ELECT (through translator): The Spanish troops who are in Iraq will come back home.

BASH: Bush officials and some GOP allies insist although Mr. Zapatero campaigned against the war in Iraq the situation following last week's terror attack is too complicated to call this an outright slap against the president.

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR (R), SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN: Everyone ought to carefully evaluate the Spanish election. We ought not to jump to conclusions.

BASH: But others aren't so sure.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL (R), SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE: When you're looking at the numbers that were violently opposed to Aznar's policy putting 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq, initially with the Bush administration on the invasion of Iraq a year ago there's going to be a consequence for that.BASH: One consequence Bush officials are working to avoid more leaders pulling support in Iraq for fear they may be the next terror target giving Senator John Kerry more ammunition as he tries to paint the president as a unilateralist who threatened national security by going to war without enough international support.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: And Spain's election upset comes as the White House engages in a weeklong PR blitz to mark the year anniversary on the war in Iraq. The finale here on Friday President Bush will speak to an audience of coalition members, including a representative from Spain to try to convince them of the importance of staying the course in the war in Iraq and on terrorism -- Anderson.

COOPER: Dana, I'm interested in the reaction in the White House to the events in Spain subsequent to the bombing, the replacement of the government. Is there a sense of disillusionment, a sense that this is exactly what the terrorists intended?

BASH: Well, certainly that is the fear. There's no question about it. You know when you talk to aides privately on the phone and try to get the real sense of how things are, certainly they say that this -- that the terrorists are essentially indiscriminate that they bombed obviously not only Spain but other places where the United States has allies like Saudi Arabia, like Indonesia.So they're trying to sort of look at it from the big picture but that is definitely the fear that this is going to have a domino effect perhaps, not only beyond Spain but in other countries in Europe. That is why the president made a phone call this morning quickly to the prime minister elect and that is why you saw aides and top officials out saying that the important thing is that no one can let the terrorists essentially win. That is certainly the fear.

COOPER: All right, Dana Bash thanks very much at the White House.A potentially significant development now to report from Saudi Arabia, American officials tell us al Qaeda's chief of operations in the region has been killed in a shootout with Saudi police. He went by the name Khalid Ali Hajj. He was also know as "The Poet."In other news, in Tennessee today the White House held a show and tell for reporters to show off what it is touting as a show of success in the war on terror. On display, pieces of Libya's nuclear arms program, equipment surrendered in January after Libya's surprise agreement to rid itself of weapons of mass destruction.The components were shipped to a military complex in Oak Ridge where the United States developed the original atomic bomb and that is where reporters got their first look.Here's CNN's David Ensor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ENSOR (voice-over): Behind lines of security men with M-4 assault rifles, the Bush administration unveiled some of the fruits of its successful diplomacy with Libya, 48 crates and boxes of sensitive nuclear weapons program components loaded into a C-17 transport plane in Libya and delivered to Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

SPENCER ABRAHAM, ENERGY SECRETARY: In my mind is that all the ingredients were available for a weapons program to be developed.

ENSOR: On show in a tent were gas centrifuge casings sold as part of $100 million deal to Libya by the black market network of Pakistani scientist Dr. AQ Khan. Inside the crates are the rotors and other key parts. In all 4,000 centrifuges are coming out of Libya, officials say, along with Scud missiles.

JAMES WILKINSON, DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER FOR COMMUNICATIONS: There's a lot more that's on a ship on the way over here right now that is due to dock at an East Coast port in the coming days.

ENSOR: Colonel Moammmar Khadafi apparently decided to come clean on his WMD programs in the hopes of getting American oil companies back into his country. While the secret diplomacy leading to the breakthrough started well before the Iraq war, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham argues the war must have been a factor.

ABRAHAM: Colonel Khadafi has not previously demonstrated much of a willingness to voluntarily reduce his military capacity. This time he did because I think he recognized the United States was unwavering in our willingness to do what we have to do to protect this country and the world from rogue nations or people obtaining weapons of mass destruction.

ENSOR (on camera): The show and tell was notable for what we're not seeing as well as what was shown. Officials assure us that inside these crates are critical components of gas centrifuges for making bomb grade uranium. Secretary Abraham says they're not revealing more for fear of helping others to figure out more about how to make a bomb.David Ensor CNN at the National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COOPER: Well, politics back here at home now there are two John Kerry and Dennis Kucinich are now the only active candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination technically speaking. The Reverend Al Sharpton today conceded defeat to Mr. Kerry and endorsed the presumptive nominee. The civil rights activist stopped short of formally ending his campaign; however, saying he's going to continue to seek delegates to try to influence the direction of his party. Senator Kerry has already locked up the 2,162 delegates needed to win the nomination. His sole opponent, Mr. Kucinich, has 23. Reverend Sharpton has 27.Ahead on the program tonight, we'll look at the political fallout from the bombings in Spain and a possible break in the case of the sniper who's been stalking the highways in Ohio.And in our second half hour Aaron Brown's interview with General John Abizaid.Around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COOPER: In Spain today some very strong words from the new prime minister elect. Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said he thinks Spain's participation in the war in Iraq has been a total error and wants the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq to return home by June 30 unless the United Nations takes control of the country.The vast majority of Spaniards oppose the war in Iraq and some have blamed the policies of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar for Thursday's devastating train bombings in Madrid. Mr. Aznar, one of President Bush's most loyal allies in the war in Iraq paid at the polls yesterday.Philip Gourevitch is the Washington Correspondent for "The New Yorker." He has also covered the United Nations and international relations for the magazine. He joins us now from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Philip thanks for being with us. How surprised were you by the vote on Sunday?

PHILIP GOUREVITCH, "THE NEW YORKER": Well, I think everybody was surprised by the vehemence of it and by the obvious connection between the bombing and the electoral outcome, the sense suddenly that maybe this was all, as it were, intended by the terrorist. I think that's perhaps the shock that we're trying to assimilate right now is that this could have been shrewder and more calculated than anybody had really understood when they just were first trying to assimilate the images of horror from those trains.But that, in fact, by making a bombing like that a few days before an election of one of the allies in the Iraq war, one of the governments that had taken the side of George Bush and the Americans in going to war in Iraq that that had all perhaps been an attempt to play a political hand, to destabilize that regime and to harness the emotions of the Spanish people.

COOPER: If that is in fact true, which it seems increasingly to be then the bombing was successful in all senses of the word. It was successful in killing large numbers of innocent people. It was also successful as the real objective of terrorism to have a political point and the vote on Sunday that you're saying then really played into the hands of what the terrorists wanted.

GOUREVITCH: I think that's right and I think it's one of the real problems that one is constantly confronting when one tries to figure out what is the proper response to terrorism. It is the terrorism is often quite successful in making one respond to it and setting an agenda that by virtue of its violence is successful. Now the idea would be well one should have resisted but I think it's also important to understand that when we look at these election results. One of the things that seems to be emerging is there are two lines one hears from Spain, from Spanish voters.On the one hand they're saying well the government of Aznar got us into this thing and in a sense the Spanish participation in the Iraq war served as a provocation and put us at risk.The other thing is that the Aznar government in the immediate moments and days following the bombing, the period of time between the bombing and the election seemed very eager to blame ETA, the Basque terrorist group that has created terrorist attacks throughout Spain in the past and I think it was the sense of deception that also inflamed the anger of the Spanish voters from all the reports that we're seeing.And so there was this sort of link between the war, which the Spanish voters opposed as high as 90 percent long before this bombing from the very beginning and which their president, with Aznar the prime minister had taken them into this war despite that. And what was really remarkable is that it looked like he was going to get reelected despite the fact that the war was 90 percent unpopular.

COOPER: But it's interesting because in the days, I mean after the bombing and before the election, I didn't really hear, and maybe it's just that I didn't follow the coverage carefully enough but I didn't really hear Spanish officials saying, look, you cannot fall into the terrorist trap of voting exactly what they want you to do.

GOUREVITCH: No because well I think the problem that the government was in is that it had sort of 72 hours to respond to the attack and make the bridge to the election and it seems from the way that it developed that the government continued to seek to blame ETA even as its own investigation was pointing more and more to an Islamic al Qaeda type link to these bombings.And what one saw was a kind of anger in the streets on the morning of the election in Spain of people saying, you know, we very much fear that we're not getting the truth here. We want the truth here and I think that that desire for the truth and the sense that there was a deception and the sense that over time this war in Iraq has consistently involved elements of deception, has been very much a part of this vote and that it wasn't simply a sense that we have to get out because look what danger it puts us in.

COOPER: Phil Gourevitch from "The New Yorker," appreciate you joining us tonight. Thank you very much.

GOUREVITCH: Thank you.

COOPER: A few more items now from around the world before we got to break starting in Karachi, Pakistan where the next deadly bombing might have taken place but didn't. It didn't because police managed to diffuse the bomb stuffed inside a minivan parked not far from the U.S. Consulate. It was discovered by consulate security guards who called the cops who went to work on the bomb, not a small bomb either, said one detective, "God has saved us." Pakistani authorities caution it is too soon to say who may have set the bomb. They do, however say they're chasing down a number of leads.Haiti's former president is back in the Caribbean, much to the dismay of Haiti's new government. Jean-Bertrand Aristide arrived today in Jamaica, not to seek asylum, Jamaica's government was quick to point that one out, but he does plan to stay until the end of May which isn't sitting well with Haiti's prime minister. "It is unfriendly" he says, said he'll recall Haiti's ambassador and boycott a regional meeting set to take place in Kingston at the end of the month.No chance of Mr. Aristide turning up here. It's a bit of a flight, about eight billion miles, the most distant object yet discovered in the universe. NASA calls it Sedna and it lives three times farther out than Pluto but its only a planetoid, smaller than a planet but bigger than an asteroid.Coming up on NEWSNIGHT tonight, the Ohio sniper case a suspect who police want to talk to about a rash of shootings along the interstate there. He is at large.This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COOPER: In Fresno, California, investigators today said that autopsies show that all nine people found dead in a Fresno home Friday were shot to death. A 57-year-old man has been charged with nine counts of murder but many questions remain in the case. Investigators are trying to sort out who the victims were and whether they all might be the suspect's children. The possibility of polygamy and incest are under investigation as well. Police discovered the bodies after they were called to the home over a custody dispute.On to Ohio and a break in the case there, authorities in Columbus today identified a suspect in a series of shootings along Interstate 270, one which killed a 62-year-old woman. The shootings began last May, you may recall, and have terrorized residents and stumped police until now.Here's CNN's Eric Phillips.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS (voice-over): It's been ten months and 24 shootings. Now Ohio authorities say they have one suspect, 28-year-old Charles McCoy, Jr. of Columbus. They believe McCoy is driving a dark green 1999 Geo Metro with a black hood and Ohio tags. 

CHIEF DEPUTY STEVE MARTIN, FRANKLIN COUNTY SHERIFF'S DEPT.: Anyone who sees McCoy or his vehicle should contact the 911 operator immediately. We caution the public not to attempt to apprehend or confront McCoy.

PHILLIPS: Investigators consider McCoy to be armed and dangerous. They believe he not only has the weapon used in the highway shootings.

MARTIN: We believe he bought another gun.PHILLIPS: The shootings began along the I-270 Columbus beltway last May and appeared to be random. One incident was fatal. Sixty- two-year-old Gail Kniceley (ph) was killed back in November as she was riding in a car on her way to a doctor's appointment. The shooter seemed to become more brazen in the most recent attacks opening fire in broad daylight. Without going into detail during an evening press conference, Franklin County Chief Deputy Steve Martin would only say McCoy was identified as a result of evidence collected in the case.Part of the evidence may have been several eyewitnesses who have described the shooter to authorities. Now officials say they need the public's help to bring McCoy in.

MARTIN: We still think he's local but we're not absolutely sure on that.

PHILLIPS: They are absolutely sure they want the highway shootings to stop. The last one happened on Valentine's Day.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Ballistics evidence shows that bullets collected from nine of the 24 shooting scenes were fired from the same gun. As the investigation continues tonight and the search continues for McCoy there's hope that soon this will all come to an end -- Anderson.

COOPER: All right, Eric Phillips thanks very much for that report.Moving on to business now tonight's Moneyline Roundup begins with Martha Stewart. She stepped down today from the board of the company she founded. In addition, Ms. Stewart dropped her title of chief creative officer but plans to retain a spot as founding editorial director."I'm heartsick" she said "about my personal and legal situation and deeply sorry for the pain and difficulties it has caused our employees." Shares of the company fell today about three and a half percent.Closing arguments today in the trial of Tyco's former CEO Dennis Kozlowski, his lawyer today urging jurors to disregard his lavish lifestyle which prosecutors say came at Tyco's expense. They'll have a whack at him in their summation which is expected to begin tomorrow.Call it the "pay me" state now, jurors in Joplin, Missouri have awarded a factory worker $20 million. The man claims he suffered lung damage at work at a chemical flavoring plant the chemicals in question buttery flavor from microwave popcorn. The Environmental Protection Agency is looking into the matter.And markets took another beating. All major indices were down for the day. So were all major indices.Ahead on NEWSNIGHT we'll go back to Aaron Brown's visit to Iraq and see some of the men and women who are trying to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure.And later the man in charge of it all, General John Abizaid and his thoughts about the challenges ahead and there are many.This is NEWSNIGHT from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: You can find a lot of people in Iraq, both Americans and Iraqis, who believe that the central nervous system, if you will, for rebuilding this country lies in a group of men and women who are rarely seen. They are part of the Army's Civil Affairs Unit. And their job is to help build a democracy, or, more correctly, to help the Iraqis build a democracy of their own. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN (voice-over): This was Baghdad after the fall, right after the fall. Captain Shawn Mehana was there then and is still here now. 

CAPT. SHAWN MEHANA, U.S. ARMY: We rolled into Baghdad. There was no power. A lot of people weren't out in the streets. And I think they were a little bit weary of us still at the time. No sewage, no running water. It was like it was dead. And that was a little bit shocking to me, the fact that -- to see a city of 5.5 million people that is completely nonfunctional. 

BROWN: Ten months later, things are vastly different. Power is on more than it's not. The lawlessness of those early weeks has stabilized markedly. Things are much better, but they aren't perfect by any means. And the occupying force often gets the blame. After all, they are Americans. 

MAJ. SCOTT CALDWELL, U.S. ARMY: They think that we can go to the moon. We have a space shuttle. We conquered, we knocked down Saddam in two weeks. Hey, if you wanted us to live just like you live in America, right now, you could do that right now, but you're not for some reason. 

BROWN: The new Iraq, if it is to become a democracy of any sort, will be built one neighborhood a time. Civil affairs units go in and help set up neighborhood councils. This is democracy at its lowest level; 88 councils, all with American mentors, exist today in Baghdad alone. But the largest and the most important task right now is finding and training a new security force. After the regime fell, there was no law. There was no order. There were no police. There was no sense of safety or security. It was an enormous problem. 

MEHANA: When I first got here, we said, well, you know, at least under Saddam, the security force may come out and kidnap or kill somebody, but, at least, for the most part, I felt pretty comfortable walking on the street. Now they're in a situation where they feel like their security has improved a little bit. Now they're starting the next complaint. Well, the police are -- the police are abusive sometimes. 

BROWN: Training is slow, leaders hard to find. An effective chain of command is hard to create. It is happening slowly. And there's no guarantee that it will happen at all. Sovereignty is to be transferred the last day of June. The military will still be here, of course. But Iraq will start assuming responsibility for itself more and more each day, their choices and their future. (on camera): Do you ever think that you'll look back, when you're 40 years old and go, my God, look at it; it's not that much better?SPC. 

FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, U.S. ARMY: That's a possibility, but once we put this government into their hands, what they do with it is ultimately up to them. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: You can topple a government in weeks. The war with Iraq proved that. But changing a country, changing a country takes far longer. But that's not to say that nothing has changed here. A lot has changed, much of it good, some of it not. Here's our Baghdad bureau chief, CNN's Jane Arraf. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): A year ago, Amal Brahim and Nabil Abdhul Gafour were preparing for war, stocking up on rice and sugar, telling the children God would protect them if bombs fell. One year later, they've exchanged worry over the war for worry over almost everything else. Amal and Nabil live next door, but they've divorced. Amal says Nabil is a good person, but, in the end, we disagreed on everything. For 24 years, she's been a flight attendant for Iraqi Airways. Even though she hasn't fly much since trade sanctions all but grounded the airline in 1991, she still gets paid. Her life then was a whirlwind of overseas travel, from one trip to Los Angeles in '80s, a watch given to her by Saddam Hussein's now dead son Qusay. "It stopped during the war," she says. "I didn't bother to get it repaired." Now she's home taking care of her three sons and she doesn't know what to tell them about the future, when the present seems so unsafe. 

AMAL BRAHIM, IRAQI CITIZEN (through translator): I'm an optimistic person. Thank God I always say to myself things will get better. The reality is, it was bad and it's getting worse. 

ARRAF: She doesn't live any better than she did under sanctions, she says. Electricity is cheap, but there's almost none. Worried about safety, she escorts her 8-year-old son Tarraf (ph) from his school just a block away. She tries to make up for the schools, still suffering from years of neglect. When there is electricity, the children pay on a computer bought by Amal's sister in Norway. In spite of the satellite TV and other freedoms banned under Saddam Hussein, the boys say things aren't better. "It's not about games," says Ibrahim (ph), who's 15. "Now there are weapons in school. Before, there weren't."Amal has been told the Transportation Ministry might stop paying Iraqi Airways employees at any time, so she has been looking for a job. On this day, she goes to a coalition-run office that tries to help Iraqis find jobs. She once dreamed of opening a travel agency. Now, she says, she's looking for any office job. Meanwhile, across town, her husband, Nabil, is at work at the struggling Oil Ministry. He's worked here for a year trying to get the offices functioning again. In the afternoon, as Nabil goes home to his aunt's house, Tarraf comes running from next door. After washing, Nabil prays. They pray more at home now, the family says, because of fear of attacks at the mosque. Nabil makes only a little bit more than his prewar salary of $60. Half goes to help support the children. He was robbed of his first paycheck after the war, he says. He had taken $20 to the market to buy fruit for the children. A man came up to him, he says, and put a gun to his head. 

NABIL ABDHUL GAFOUR, IRAQ RESIDENT (through translator): I said, this is my salary. Let me keep it. I said to myself, he didn't come to kill me. He came to steal the salary. But when he pointed the pistol at my legs, I said, he was going to shoot me. 

ARRAF: He tries to be optimistic about the future for his sons, but his eyes fill with tears. 

GAFOUR (through translator): We are all in the hands of God. You can't feel anything tangible that will be good for them. 

ARRAF: Amal and Nabil lived through the terror of dictatorship and the pain of three wars. But a year after the last one, for them, the future and its uncertainty seem just as frightening. Jane Arraf, CNN, Baghdad. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: We'll have more from here in a bit. We'll take a break first. From Baghdad, this is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: As we mentioned at the top of the program, we spent the last couple of days here traveling with General John Abizaid, who is in charge of the region. It would seem that General Abizaid was born for the job he now has. He is the child of Lebanese-American parents, a Californian by birth. He has studied the Middle East and Arab history and knows it very well. He is an interesting combination of field general, a war planner and an intellect, though I'm not sure he would like that description exactly. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): He starts his day with a routine staff meeting. What happened overnight? Were there incidents, as they call them? How many died? Who killed them? Were they caught? His intelligence guy gives him the good news and the bad. He's even told how the world press is reporting the story of Iraq and Afghanistan. He flies around the country to visit his command, a Polish general in charge of a large and true coalition, 24 countries, though some have sent just a few soldiers. They are south of Baghdad in a volatile Shiite area. It is an important region. His voice is quiet, his humor easy. He's a West Point grad who tells anyone who asks that, most of all, he is proud of the young men and women who do the real work, the hard and courageous work of being a soldier. At the end of a long day, we began by asking him of the dangers that lie ahead. (on camera): Over the next 30 days, what makes you nervous? 

GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, CMDR., U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: Over the next 30 days, what makes me the most nervous is what I think is going to be a clear increase in violence by those that want to derail this process. And I think that because they know they're running out of time. Every day that Iraqis security institutions get stronger is a day that they'll have less and less of an opportunity to gain -- or to derail the process. And so, it makes me nervous that we're moving into a very intense political period. 

BROWN: When you talk about violence, are you more concerned about the kinds of attacks on Americans or are you concerned about the kinds of attacks that -- the mass suicide bombing sort of things or both? 

ABIZAID: Both. I mean, clearly, the other day, during Ashura, we saw a horrible series of bombings that took an lot of Iraqi lives. And over the past couple of months, we have seen an increase in attacks and assassinations against key Iraqi institutions and officials. And, clearly, attacks against Americans always concerns us, but attacks against the coalition is part of the price that we'll have to bear as long as we're here. 

BROWN: Implicit in that is a belief, it seems to me, that Iraqis, come June 30 or July 1, will see that government as legitimate. Do you believe they'll see it as legitimate? 

ABIZAID: Well, it's hard for me to predict exactly what that government's going to look like now, because we just don't know. At least we know military people don't know. Clearly, Ambassador Bremer is involved in negotiations with the Iraqi Governing Council.But I think the important way to answer the question is that I believe the government on the 1st of July must be seen as legitimate by the majority of the Iraqi people if we're to progress in a positive way. 

BROWN: And do you have a feeling about whether that will be successful? 

ABIZAID: I think it can be successful. I see no reason why it can't be.I think there's going to be a lot of compromise and a lot of political maneuvering that takes place. And there will be violent attempts to undermine the process that we'll have to do our best to thwart. 

BROWN: And are these -- are the bad actors the same bad actors that have been in play for months and months or is that changed in any significant way? 

ABIZAID: I think the bad actors are changing somewhat. Clearly, there are bad actors that go back to the days of serving in the Iraqi intelligence service and the Republican Special Guard forces that were very close to Saddam. But, also, there's this arrival of terrorist types such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. There's a strengthening of Ansar Al-Islam that was here in the early days. We hit them hard immediately after the war. They came back up. We hit them hard again and then they tend to resurge a bit. So, I would say there's a combination of the old enemies, the former regime elements, and the newer enemies that are more terrorist and more extremist in nature. 

BROWN: Is there a significant influx of, I guess, jihadists, people who are drawn to this sort of Super Bowl of terrorism, if that's what -- the way they see it. Is that a significant part of the puzzle? 

ABIZAID: I don't think it's a significant part of the puzzle. It's part of the puzzle. There's no doubt. There are foreign fighters, some of which are experienced that have served in places like Afghanistan and in various conflicts and now are making their way into Iraq, but small in number. And there are those that are drawn to the prospect of fighting the coalition or fighting other forces that they regard as being against their ideology that are less experienced. But the vast majority of the people that we are fighting and capturing and killing are still Iraqis. And the primary problem is internal, not external. 

BROWN: And are we talking about thousands of people, tens of thousands of people, hundreds of people? 

ABIZAID: Well, it all depends what we're talking about.BROWN: In total. 

ABIZAID: If it's active resistance, if it's active enemy activity directed against the coalition, I think the numbers are in the thousands. But if it's -- if you're talking about terrorists, I'd say the numbers are in the hundreds. 

BROWN: Do you believe it's realistic that there could be a political campaign and elections in this country by the end of the year? 

ABIZAID: I don't think anything will ever happen in this country the way we think it will happen. This country is culturally unique. It's filled with talented people. It's got a lot of resources. But, on the other hand, it -- it has a past that will help guide its future. And it won't be done in a way that we might necessarily recognize in the United States of America. They don't have a democratic tradition. They have a tradition of violent repression by the state. They have a tradition of an awful lot of warfare. They have a tradition of various tribal groups, religious sects, etcetera, being played off against one another. The question is, can you -- can you take the violent impulses and calm them enough to allow political moderation to surface? And I think the answer is, you can. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Just a quick end note: The general and his staff said from the beginning that we could go virtually everywhere him, attend every meeting, listen to everything. And they kept their word, and then some. They couldn't have been more open and more gracious. And for that, we, and more importantly you, will get a better understanding of the complexities, the dangers, the possibilities in this most important region of the world. We're very grateful for their openness. We'll take a break. NEWSNIGHT continues in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Before we leave you tonight, a different view of Baghdad. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN (voice-over): From the air, though not very far up, you see a city that is alive. It may not look like your town -- your town probably doesn't have palaces or bomb damage -- but it is alive. Traffic flows, or, in some cases, stands still. And it seems that, on every roof, there are satellite dishes, banned in the old days, a link to the world today. Iraqis today have access to a literal world of information, good and bad, information to help fashion choices about their future as they rebuild. There is no guarantee how it turns out, but, clearly, there are small and encouraging signs that should not be ignored. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: We move to Pakistan. Secretary of State Colin Powell will be there and we'll have a chance to talk to him. We'll also have the opportunity to talk to the Pakistani president, President Musharraf, who is critical in the war on terror and has, in just the last couple of months, survived two attempts on his life. NEWSNIGHT from Pakistan tomorrow.Good night from all of us in Baghdad. 

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