Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Dean Quits Presidential Race; White House Backs Off Jobs Projections

Dean Quits Presidential Race; White House Backs Off Jobs Projections

Aired February 18, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.There is sizzle and there is steak and in the end Howard Dean was more the former than the latter. But to leave it at that is to ignore his impact on the race, on the other candidates and perhaps on the November election as well.While his better known rivals were trying to find a voice and a message, Dr. Dean already had one. Democrats and maybe a good number of independents are angry, angry at the war, angry about the economy, angry most of all at George Bush.It was Dean's anger that helped define the race and, oddly, it may have been that same anger that scared voters off. But he threw the first punches at Republicans. He softened them up some and if the Democratic candidate in November actually wins this thing, Howard Dean should get at least a piece of the credit.The end of the Dean campaign tops the program and begins the whip. CNN's Candy Crowley has been with the campaign from the start, Candy the headline tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, as you said, the doctor is out. The campaign ended here in Burlington but a long, strange trip it's been.BROWN: It has been that. We'll get back to you, Candy, at the top.We go next to CNN's Dan Lothian also on the trail, Dan a headline from you tonight.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Aaron, Senator Edwards and Senator Kerry are now essentially in a two man race, the question now what is the strategy to win on Super Tuesday -- Aaron?BROWN: Dan, thank you.The White House next where the economy became something of a bone of contention within the White House. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King working tonight, John a headline.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, it was just nine days ago the administration predicted 2.6 million new jobs this year. The first two members of the cabinet, then the president himself refused to stand by those numbers. The White House says economic forecasts change. Democrats say this president has a credibility problem.

BROWN: John, thank you.And finally the question of al Qaeda's presence in Iraq, the story being reported from the Pentagon by Jamie McIntyre, Jamie a headline tonight.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, U.S. commanders for weeks have been saying they saw the fingerprints of al Qaeda in the violence in Iraq. Tonight they say they've rounded up some suspected al Qaeda members who may have had a hand in the attacks.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, good to see you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.Also coming up on the program tonight our interview with Cardinal Roger Mahoney of Los Angeles about a report on sexual abuse going back 70 years in his diocese.Later, another in our series of still photos, look at it this way we call it, tonight young offenders trying to make it through prison.And just out of the pen or perhaps the coop, the rooster stops by with morning papers, all that and more in the hour ahead.We begin tonight with Howard Dean, Howard who a year ago, the obvious nominee two months ago, third place last night and out of the race by this afternoon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): What was unthinkable less than two months ago was a predictable moment today.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am no longer actively pursuing the presidency. We will, however, continue to build a new organization using our enormous grassroots network to continue the effort to transform the Democratic Party and to change our country.

BROWN: Tonight, all those Deaniacs, those enthusiastic supporters of the governor, must now decide do they stay in politics, do they vote or do they walk away? Their leader offered this.

DEAN: I will support the nominee of our party. I will do everything I can to beat George W. Bush. I urge you to do the same.

BROWN: It is too late in the process to stop Dr. Dean's name from appearing on ballots in the big Super Tuesday states two weeks from now and he has not yet said whether he will endorse anyone. So, all we can say tonight is that it's ended and that it ended much the way it began.

DEAN: And together we have the power to take back the White House in 2004 and that is exactly what we're going to do. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Howard Dean on the way out, in third place but, as we said, it's fair to say having changed much about these races, how they're run and how we view them, more on that now from CNN's Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY (voice-over): The end was quick. The rest took two years.

DEAN: Hi, I'm Howard Dean.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My name is Christina (unintelligible) nice to meet you.

DEAN: Where are you from?

CROWLEY: Voter by voter in the summer and fall of 2002, Howard Dean built a buzz on the trail but never even registered a blip on Washington's political radar until the party's winter meeting a year ago.

DEAN: What I want to know is why in the world the Democratic Party leadership is supporting the president's unilateral attack on Iraq.

CROWLEY: Dean tapped into a deep vein at the core of the party, Democrats angry about the war, the president who started it, the Democrats who let him. Soon, Dean was flying high on a sleepless summer tour. The candidate and his team mugged for the cameras in a behind-the-campaign-scenes look to be aired on "CNN PRESENTS."

DEAN: Haven't I done a great job managing Trippi's campaign for president? Aren't I...

JOE TRIPPI, FORMER DEAN CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Did you want to jump in there?

DEAN: No, no, no, no. I don't want to interrupt. You're the guy who ought to be on the cover of "Time."TRIPPI: Oh, God.

CROWLEY: The crowds were enormous, the money raised in a cutting edge Internet effort poured in. He was king of the Hustings, the biggest coffers, the best poll numbers, union support and more.

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And that's why I'm here to endorse Howard Dean as the next president. Thank you.

CROWLEY: They were landing big fish, mainstreamers, but even as they looked unstoppable Camp Dean was worried. Internet interest had leveled off. There were doubts about the Iowa organization and a year's old tape surfaced with Dean belittling the caucuses other poorly received statements got a second look.

DEAN: The capture of Saddam has not made America safer.

CROWLEY: The calendar was closing in and the candidate was getting mauled.

ANNOUNCER: Did you know Howard Dean called Medicare one of the worst federal programs ever?

CROWLEY: Dean seemed thrown, his complaints about rival attacks sounded like whining, the magic was fading.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi (unintelligible). I'm Deborah. I've come all the way from Oregon.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My that's a long ways Deborah.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know.CROWLEY: They hoped volunteers would bring out Iowa voters and they did for Kerry and Edwards.DEAN: We're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan and then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House.

CROWLEY: His New Hampshire polls collapsed under the controversy over Dean's concession performance. Finishing a distant second in New Hampshire, Dean replaced his campaign chief with a nuts and bolts guy but it was too late. The money and what was left of the magic was gone. Dean ended as he began campaigning voter to voter.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY: This evening the campaign put out a final blog on Dean for president saying that it has raised $50 million, more than any other Democratic presidential candidate and that it had, over time, 800,000 supporters signed up and signed on either online or elsewhere and to that we add this final number. Seventeen primaries or caucuses lost including the 18th primary, Americans Abroad, which he also lost -- Aaron.

BROWN: Candy, I could ask a really long and interesting and thoughtful question or I could just let you go get warm somewhere. I choose the latter.

CROWLEY: Thank you.

BROWN: You're welcome. Thank you for your hard work for all these many weeks.As we said at the top, Dr. Dean's departure today finally makes this all, for all intents and purposes at least, a two way race. That's what John Edwards said all along he wanted and now John Edwards has it. He also has less money, fewer delegates and not a whole lot of time to wage a Super Tuesday fight that literally spans the country. He has two weeks.Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN (voice-over): It wasn't a win in Wisconsin but Senator John Edwards is feeling the wind at his back, says a senior aide, after a strong second place finish.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think it was an extraordinary victory.

LOTHIAN: The strategy to keep up his momentum going into Super Tuesday with ten states up for grabs, talk even louder about the economy and trade, especially in states like Ohio, Georgia and New York, impacted by the loss of manufacturing jobs.

BILL DE BLASIO, EDWARDS' NY CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: His message on the economy is going to resonate in upstate New York very, very powerfully.

LOTHIAN: In what has essentially become a two man race, Senator Edwards, who opposes the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, will tell anyone who will listen that Senator John Kerry voted for it. It's become the hot issue.

EDWARDS: I think voters need to see the difference in our views.

LOTHIAN: But Senator Kerry, campaigning in Ohio Wednesday, argued they're both on the same page when it comes to trade. And, in what appeared to be an attempt to minimize the Edwards' trade strategy, he raised questions about when the Senator from North Carolina first voiced his opposition to NAFTA, an agreement some blame for the loss of jobs.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He wasn't in the Senate back then. I don't know where he registered his vote but it wasn't in the Senate.

LOTHIAN: The Kerry strategy, say aides, will be to deliver a positive message of change for the country, always willing to point out that he's won most of the contests so far and he's the best candidate to beat George Bush the battle for Super Tuesday few expected just days ago but political strategists say it's more an interesting story than a viable challenge.

HANK SHEINKOPF, POLITICAL STRATEGIST: Edwards certainly did well but not enough necessarily to make him a real contender here. The momentum is with John Kerry. He's got the delegates. He's got momentum. He's got the money.

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

LOTHIAN: Of course, Senator Edwards believes that he does have a shot in this race. He says he's not running to be vice president. He wants to be president of the United StatesAs for the money, the campaign believes that they are in good shape through Super Tuesday and, in fact, continue to raise money. Senator Edwards was in New York tonight for a fund-raiser and so far since last night they've been able to raise more than $300,000 -- Aaron.

BROWN: Here's a problem I think for the campaign. They've got California and New York, two very expensive media markets. He has been able to cherry-pick to some degree his way around the country finding good spots. He probably can't do that as much anymore. Is he going to try and campaign across the country over the next two weeks?

LOTHIAN: Well, what the campaign really wants to do is focus on the critical states where they can hit those markets, where workers have been laid off from their jobs.

BROWN: Ohio.

LOTHIAN: Ohio and Georgia as well, even in Minnesota. Those are the places where clearly they've lost jobs. Those are the places they're going to campaign. But they have to campaign in those other states as well and some strategists believe that if they can't win in California and they can't win in New York then it pretty much is over for him.BROWN: Thank you, Dan. You probably have to jump on a plane but I just want you to know I got through this segment without interrupting you tonight.

LOTHIAN: Thank you.

BROWN: We're one ahead of where we were 24 hours ago.

LOTHIAN: Thank you very much.

BROWN: I apologize for that last night.The Democrats have certainly benefited from a less than stellar period for the White House. Last week an important economic adviser to the president seemed to suggest that the outsourcing of jobs, which is a very nice way of saying American jobs are being shipped overseas, was in the long run a good thing for the country, not exactly a campaign slogan for an incumbent president.The president tried to clean up that mess last week and today he tried to clean up that mess last week and today he tried to clean up another. A report by the White House on how many jobs it expects will be created in the next year, 2.6 million, a wonderful number if you believe.Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): In the oval office, no direct answer when asked if he stands by a prediction that the economy will create 2.6 million new jobs this year.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think the economy is growing and I think it's going to get stronger.

KING: That upbeat prediction of 2.6 million new jobs is from a White House report issued just nine days ago. The treasury and commerce secretaries were first to distance themselves from the number, leading six Senate Democrats to write Mr. Bush asking for "a meaningful jobs prediction that all Americans, including your own cabinet, would find credible." Mr. Bush's spokesman was reminded the election year report carried the president's signature and presumably his endorsement.

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I mean you're trying to get in here to get me to answer questions that are trying to trap me into certain things.

KING: Democratic front-runner John Kerry says it is hardly the first time administration jobs predictions have failed the credibility test.

KERRY: The promised in the first tax cut they'd create 500,000 jobs. They lost a million or more. In the next tax cut, they promised another 800,000 jobs. They lost another two million.

KING: The Iraq War is another credibility challenge.

BUSH: Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda.

KING: This scathing ad by a liberal group among the attacks suggesting the president hyped the evidence.

BUSH: Members of Congress looked at the same intelligence and they saw a danger. The United Nations Security Council looked at the intelligence and it saw a danger. We reached a reasonable conclusion that Saddam Hussein was a danger.

KING: Fifty-one percent of Americans in a new CNN poll say they approve of how Mr. Bush is handling his job, down from 60 percent six weeks ago, and 55 percent consider Mr. Bush honest and trustworthy, a low point for his presidency. The administration chalks it all up to Democratic campaign attacks.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: But some Republicans are getting a little nervous and these Republicans think it is now well past time for the president to tap his one huge advantage in this race, his campaign war chest. They, Aaron, think the White House should start spending money on campaign ads but the Bush-Cheney team says not yet. They want to wait one week, maybe two more, just to see if Senator Kerry stumbles. 

BROWN: Well, what is fascinating to me because I love this stuff is that this is not a president and not a White House that likes to have someone else set the agenda. They want to be on the offense. They're the incumbent. They ought to be on the offense in many ways and yet for months now it seems, whether it's Iraq, the economy, the rest, they have been playing defense and not playing it especially well.

KING: Much rather play defense in February than in October but you are exactly right. Today they were trying to explain this economic report away by saying it's an economic forecast. It was necessary for the budget. Numbers change over time. It wasn't meant to be a, you know, put it in cement number for the campaign. But they also have to know at this White House everything they say and do in this year will be viewed in a political context, so that argument simply didn't carry much weight, especially with the Democrats.

BROWN: Do you expect that they will try out the ads soon? I saw a Dick Morris column today say they better do it soon because if they don't John Kerry will have defined himself.

KING: They will do this much soon. The president will have an event here at the White House on the economy tomorrow. They will try to change the story, at least a little bit. He will begin to travel more aggressively.They say it could be a waste of money. They were ready to launch those ads as early as the end of this week. They want to wait a little bit longer. Whether they will wait two weeks and give Senator Edwards that long is the subject of debate. Most Bush aides say wait. Don't waste the money. But again many outside advisers are looking at all these poll numbers and saying spend a little now.

BROWN: Well, when you got as much as they have they can waste a little. John, thank you very much, our Senior White House Correspondent John King, good to have him with us tonight.Ahead on the program another tough day in Iraq, while at the same time the United States raids net more alleged members of al Qaeda.And later, more in our series called look at it this way, the work of still photographers around the country, tonight life behind bars when you are only a kid.From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Maybe it should by now but they never look routine to us those names.In Iraq today, a multinational coalition based south of Baghdad was the target of a brazen attack. Two suicide bombers in separate vehicles tried to run through the gate at the base this morning as parents in the area were taking their children to school. At least eight Iraqi civilians were killed, five of them children, dozens of people hurt, including 12 coalition soldiers. The bad guys took a hit as well today. The U.S. military says it captured seven militants in the raid, all with suspected links to al Qaeda, from the Pentagon tonight CNN's Jamie McIntyre.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): The raid, conducted by soldiers of the 4th Infantry Division, was aimed at taking down an anti-coalition cell in Baquba, an Iraqi city in the heart of the so-called Sunni Triangle where opposition to the U.S. remains strong.According to the U.S. military, 22 people were detained, including seven suspects who were specifically targeted and are believed to have links to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda terrorist network.

COL. WILLIAM ADAMSON, U.S. ARMY: This morning in Baquba we conducted a series of raids to detain people associated with a terrorist group with ties to al Qaeda. We suspected that they were responsible for a suicide car bombing in Baquba on 15 January.

MCINTYRE: Suicide attacks, like the one that rocked the Polish military base south of Baghdad Wednesday, are thought to be closer to the MO of al Qaeda fanatics rather than former Iraqi regime members.Since earlier this month when the coalition authority released the contents of a seized document, reportedly written by top al Qaeda operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, U.S. officials have been blaming more of the violence on outside agitators.

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: There are also terrorists that are coming in from other countries across the Iranian border, the Syrian border, and they're determined to have a radical regime, a regime that is -- would be supportive of Osama bin Laden and people of that ilk.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: And, Aaron, as you noted, Iraqi civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence but even though many Iraqis are fearful the U.S. says that many are still helping, providing daily leads on where opponents of the U.S. are hiding.And this week the U.S. asked for more help distributing a new most wanted list of 32 people suspected of running the insurgency with rewards ranging from $20,000 to $1 million for their capture -- Aaron.

BROWN: This is on a different front. Do you detect at the Pentagon any concern that the Americans or the coalition have lost control or are losing control of the political situation there? 

MCINTYRE: I think there's a real concern that they not lose the support of the Iraqi people and the fact that Iraqis are truly concerned about their security they're very anxious to get this turnover to the Iraqi government and get the Iraqis in charge but there's a real concern about how that's going to go. I think that's fair to say.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, good to see you again.A few more items from around the world now, beginning in Beirut with the echoes of another time. Terry Waite came to inspect refugee camps as part of a fact-finding mission, the first time he set foot in Lebanon since his kidnapping 16 years ago. Mr. Waite, you may recall, was held hostage for nearly five years by a then shadowy group called the Islamic Jihad.Haiti next where rioting or not there are no plans for the international community tonight, at least, to send troops or police to sort things out, this according to Secretary of State Powell who said Haitians must reach a political settlement before other countries step in.Northeast Iran, an inferno, runaway rail cars full of fuel caught fire then exploded outside a city of 170,000 people. At least 200 people have died, many of them firefighters, some of them residents of mud homes knocked down from the explosion.Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, the priest abuse problem and what the head of the largest diocese in the country has to say about a report that traces the problem back 70 years, a break first.This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In San Francisco, close to 3,000 gay couples have now married, state law notwithstanding, in almost a week. In a typical day, city officials in San Francisco might marry 30 straight couples. These days are anything but typical.Today, the president said he was troubled by what is unfolding in San Francisco and repeated his belief that marriage should be limited to straight couples. Others who share that belief have filed legal challenges to stop the San Francisco marriages. Yesterday, two judges refused rulings for now and, so today, the wedding bells rang again.Here's CNN's David Mattingly.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After 11 and a half years of togetherness, Bill Hinson and Dan Johnson never dared dream that they'd one day be allowed to marry and in church. All it took was the profound combination of a marriage license and a willing Methodist minister. Now into their second day anniversary, Bill who has AIDS and Dan who is HIV positive, can't wait for that inevitable question the next time they're at the hospital.

BILL HINSON, NEWLYWED: Are you family? Yes, we are. We're family now and that makes a big difference in itself.

DAN JOHNSON, NEWLYWED: Yes, it does.

MATTINGLY (on camera): They're just one of thousands of couples now exploring the myriad of potential changes to their private lives after a very public display of legal defiance. The city of San Francisco last week opened the door to same-sex couples. It has since handed out more than 2,800 marriage licenses and all the benefits that go along with them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The ability to inherit property, my pension at work, those are things that, you know, married couples, heterosexual married couples don't have to worry about.

MATTINGLY (voice-over): But many of these soon to be married couples say they are cautiously avoiding any lasting financial decisions, worried that what was suddenly given to them could suddenly disappear.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not congratulations?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, don't rely on it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, why not?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It might not, it might not last you very long.

MATTINGLY: Robert Tyler represents the Alliance Defense Fund, one group taking the city to court and seeking to roll back the entire wave of marriage licenses issued to same-sex couples. He is armed with California law, defining marriage strictly between one man and one woman.

ROGER TYLER, ATTORNEY, ALLIANCE DEFENSE FUND: What we are doing is right that we are on the right side of the law and the mayor is on the wrong side of the law.

MATTINGLY: And that leaves thousands of married couples in legal limbo, unable to celebrate a victory, unwilling to let it go.

HINSON: Not without a fight, you know.

JOHNSON: We're going to (unintelligible).

HINSON: (Unintelligible) to get married and it really meant a lot and I don't want that taken away now.

JOHNSON: It wouldn't be right.

HINSON: It wouldn't be right.

MATTINGLY: Looming court showdowns will eventually decide what is right for same-sex couples in California and who is on the right side of the law.David Mattingly, CNN San Francisco.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: This week the scope of the sex abuse scandal in the Catholic Church came into clearer focus. First came a draft of a nationwide survey drawing on 52 years of church records. It found that more than 11,000 allegations were made against more than 4,000 priests. That's the big picture.Yesterday, the lens narrowed a bit when the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Los Angeles released its own study of the problem within its clergy, just L.A. It found 656 allegations leveled at 244 priests and other church workers since the 1930s. How complete this report is remains an open question and subject to some controversy but it does remain the best evidence to date. Cardinal Roger Mahoney compiled the report and spoke to us yesterday about what he found.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Sir, if someone had said to you five years ago that since the 1930s there have been 650-700 cases of abuse in the archdiocese would you have been surprised by that number?

CARDINAL ROGER MAHONEY, ROMAN CATHOLIC ARCHDIOCESE OF LOS ANGELES: Well, it covers 73 years and these are accusations, 656 accusations. Obviously, even one is too many.But given the population of this area, the thousands of priests who have served here, it actually is higher than I would like, but it doesn't surprise me. 

BROWN: It doesn't seem to you, again, acknowledging, as you have, that even one is too many, this number doesn't strike you as a large number? Do you think it's a complete number? 

MAHONEY: Well, I think it's as complete as we can get. Keep in mind, of that number, we only learned of 522 of these accusations in the last two years. And so the reporting prior to that would never indicate that there would have been this many incidents. And we also learned from this report that they occurred primarily in the 1950s, '60s, and '70s, and early '80s. And then there's a rapid decline from that point on. 

BROWN: Do you think there was a point then -- and despite how we tend to look at this, these days, that there was a point in the early '80s, somewhere between maybe 1975 and 1985, when -- you'll excuse the expression -- the church seemed to get it? 

MAHONEY: Well, I think that, as our report points out, there was an evolution of understanding how to deal with this problem. And so, prior to 1985, it was looked upon as a moral lapse. And then psychologists, they began offering their recommendations. And it really wasn't until 1985 that the church in general understood, this is far more serious than anybody had thought before. And the treatment modalities, they just were inadequate. And so that's what began the development of formal policies in diocese that got ever more strict moving through the years up to 2002. 

BROWN: One of the things that, in covering this story, we have heard any number of times from people that -- in some cases, victims, in some cases, observers of it all -- is that, while individual priests clearly are being held accountable now -- whether they were before is another matter -- that their bosses, people like yourself, are not being held accountable. Do you agree with that? 

MAHONEY: Well, and our report gets into that. We pull no punches in our report that we've issued today. And we acknowledge the mistakes that were made. We actually give examples. We take cases and we go through them one by one and show where errors were made, and some of them by my predecessors, some of them by me. And so I've again had to acknowledge those mistakes and issue those apologies. But also, since we've named all the names in our report, we're also hopeful that there are other victims out there, they will come forward. We don't see this as the end of the process, but we think it's a helpful moment in the process. And so if there are people who need counseling, who need spiritual, pastoral care, please call us. We really want you to come forward. 

BROWN: Just two more things, sir. Just, in your view, then, an apology coming from you is enough accountability, is adequate accountability? No more than that is required? 

MAHONEY: No, there are actually a number of things that have to go together. An apology, as I say in my cover letter, is of itself insufficient. What steps have been put in place? What corrections have been made? And I think that our diocese, Archdiocese of Los Angeles, as well as diocese across the country, have taken this very seriously. And our oversight board has 13 members now; 11 of those are laypeople. Parents of abused children are on it. A victim is on it. They have taken this over now, and they are the ones that do the principal investigating. They are the ones that make the recommendations and decisions on how we're going to deal with this. So, a lot of things have happened for the good because of the mistakes we made in the past. 

BROWN: Now, Cardinal, none of this can be very pleasant to talk about or think about or deal with. We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you. 

MAHONEY: Thank you very much, Aaron. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: And we talked to the cardinal yesterday. Still to come on the program tonight, we go back to politics, look at how the landscape has changed. Is it as dramatic as it seemed 24 hours ago? Weigh in on that after the break. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Back to the top, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and a paradox, if you will. Last night, in Wisconsin, voters who say beet beating George Bush is key went 2-1 for John Kerry. But independents, without whom no Democrat can beat George Bush, went heavily for Edwards. Writing about it in "Slate" magazine, Wil Saletan put it this way: "I'd rather be Kerry than Edwards," he writes, "but if I were, I'd pray the folks in the first group don't find out about the folks in the second."Mr. Saletan joins us from Washington tonight, also in Washington, Republican strategist Doug MacKinnon. And we're pleased to have them both. Wil, let me start with you here.You make the argument that it's certainly possible for Senator Edwards to win this thing, but, it seems to me, he needs a dramatic day two weeks from now, a really big day two weeks from now. Do you agree with that? 

WILLIAM SALETAN, SLATE.COM: Yes, absolutely. The Edwards people have gone a long way by saying, all we have to do is come in a close third here or a close second, and we just have to get to a one-on-one. Well, now they have their one-on-one. Now they've got to win. They've got to win because the media won't stand for them losing anymore, and they've got to win because the delegates -- there are so many delegates on stake on March 2, that if Edwards doesn't get at least get about half of those, he's finished numerically. 

BROWN: And just my argument here is, it's not enough to cherry- pick a win in Georgia and maybe sneak really something close in Ohio. You need that big night, where you -- the headline isn't ambiguous. 

SALETAN: Yes, that's exactly right. You can't keep surpassing expectations, because, every time you surpass expectations, the expectations rise. Now the expectations are no longer that a good second is good enough. Now the expectations are, if you say you can beat Kerry, beat him now, March 2. 

BROWN: Doug, I'm curious how a Republican looking at all of this sees it. Is it, in some sense, bad for your guys, the Republican guys, that this thing clearly is going to go on for another couple weeks? 

DOUG MACKINNON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Yes, in a sense, it is. Kerry's going to get more seasoned as the race goes on. But I don't see how Edwards is going to have a big night two weeks from now, ultimately. Again, like you said, maybe you can find Georgia for him. I doubt Ohio. I doubt anyplace else. And he can't go anywhere after that's over. So we're still focused on Kerry. He's still the front- runner. It's still his race to lose. I imagine he's going to stay the front-runner, and then we'll deal with him. 

BROWN: If you were advising Senator Edwards now, would you tell him to throw a haymaker at John Kerry or to behave himself and come out of this as having performed really well and look to the tomorrow of four years from now? 

MACKINNON: Yes, John Kerry has actually been very clever.I mean -- I'm sorry. John Edwards has been very clever about this whole thing. He decided not to run for reelection in North Carolina, I think, because he did the math down there, realized he was not going to win, realized that Bush is going to take that state strongly in 2004 in November, decided, what the heck, why don't I throw myself into the presidential ring? It's a great move. He's gotten great publicity out of this thing. And what's going to happen is, yes, he's not going to throw a haymaker at John Kerry, because, ultimately, he would like to be the vice president. They're never going to talk about that. No one's going to admit that. But the fact of the matter is, he's got no place to go after this race. And if he's not the vice president, what's he going to do politically? 

BROWN: Wil, both candidates have talked a lot about electability, that they're the ones that can beat George Bush. And I'll ask both of you this question. I'm curious, though, first with you. Who do you think the Bushies worry about most? 

SALETAN: Well, first of all, I wouldn't look to the Bushies to tell you who's actually more electable.I remember, in the first Bush White House, there were a lot of people who were really happy, looking forward to facing Bill Clinton. They said he'd be easy to beat because of his women problems. Well, they learned the hard way they were mistaken. So their judgment isn't necessarily the best about this. I think that, in some ways, if you look at the exit polls, John Edwards is stronger than Kerry is with independents and with crossover Republicans. But, if you look at the race the way that the Republicans would have to run it against the two candidates, against Edwards, they could run the campaign they wanted to run against Dean, which is, Bush is the strong national security president. Against Kerry, they've got to run on all this social liberal stuff, which looks petty in a time of economic trouble and terrorism. 

BROWN: Doug, do you agree they'd rather run against Senator Edwards, who looks somewhat younger than he is and doesn't have that Vietnam history in his background and the rest? 

MACKINNON: Yes. I mean, now that Wil's defined my judgment a little bit on this, I'm going to say that's exactly right. Kerry is ultimately still a more seasoned candidate. He's been through some tough races. He's -- what -- someone said he put the grave in gravitas, but he does have some gravitas. He has been there for over 20 years in the public arena. And Edwards is fairly new at this. He was a trial lawyer before getting into this. And, again, he decided he didn't want to run for reelection in North Carolina, where he would probably lose. So, if you look at that, for me, as a Republican, I would much rather go against John Edwards than John Kerry. The fact of the matter is, we're probably going to get John Kerry. And that's going to be decided in two weeks. BROWN: It will be an interesting run. And I hope you guys both will come back and talk about it as we go along. Thank you very much. 

MACKINNON: Would love to. Thanks, Aaron. 

SALETAN: Thanks, Aaron. 

BROWN: Thank you, guys.Before we go to break, a few other stories that made news today around the country, beginning in Phoenix, where authorities today discovered two houses harboring at least 100 undocumented immigrants between them. Two other so-called drop houses were also found in and around Phoenix in recent days, at least 288 illegal immigrants arrested in all, making this one of the busiest weeks in memory, according to immigration officials. Another allegation of rape involving a University of Colorado football player emerged today. A woman who worked in the school's athletic department reported the alleged assault in the year 2001. Today, Boulder Police released a report as part of an open records request from news organizations. It's the fifth allegation of assault by a C.U. player or recruit. Former place kicker Katie Hnida said in a magazine article this week that she was raped by a teammate in 1999. California authorities have arrested the mother of a 17-year-old boy who discovered he was allegedly abducted from Canada 14 years ago. He discovered this when he saw his own picture on a missing children's Web site. The photo was taken when he was 3, living with his father, who had custody of him at the time. Police say the boy's mother didn't return him after a court-ordered visit and instead fled the country. She's now awaiting extradition to Canada on child abduction charges. Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT tonight, we will, of course, check morning papers. Be patient. But, up next, behind bars in still life among children. This is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Segment seven is where we proudly wear our love for still photos on our sleeve. Tonight, the pictures take us behind bars, where more than 100,000 juveniles are spending part of their childhood; 14,000 of them are in adult jails or prisons in the country. Photographer Joseph Rodriguez followed a dozen young people through the twists and turns of the criminal justice system in Northern California, a journey documented in his book "Juvenile," a journey he took himself before he picked up a camera. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

JOSEPH RODRIGUEZ, PHOTOGRAPHER: When I was first arrested myself as a juvenile and went to Rikers Island, I remember what that experience was like. It was really daunting and very difficult. The thought of going back to tell this story has stayed with me for many, many years. I received a fellowship to work closely with the people at the Pacific News Service out in San Francisco that goes into all these juvenile halls throughout the Bay area. So I wanted to sort of document some of their work, but also meet some of the teenagers that they were working with. I always thought about, well, what happens to these kids? What happens to them once they get into the system and what happens to them after they come out? For the most part, a lot of these kids really want to be heard. And they need someone to listen to them and take some time and tell their story. So it really was very much about just being there on a regular basis. Katrina (ph) has been in the system ever since she was 12, I believe. And her parents were also in the system. So she's been pretty much on her own. And Katrina was very lucky to have a public defender who really cared for her. That's Jose (ph), who's getting ready to go to court the day before. And Chris DeGannon (ph), his public defender, is in that room, is in the interview with him. And he's really stressing about, he doesn't know if he can make it. He had stolen a soda from a candy store. And because they have this "three strikes, you're out" penalty in California, I believe he had already had a strike, and this was going to be his second strike. You see him sitting at the table there with his grandmother, Chris DeGannon, his probation officer, and his mental health worker. And that's what these kids need in the system. It's like a village. You need a village to save a child. It's not just one person. It's not just one aspect that's going to save a kid. Lance's (ph) journey was long and hard. He basically, you know, at the age of 5 or 6, was already in the system. And then, as he became older, he came out and then got into more trouble. He lived in an African American community. Being the only white kid in the neighborhood, he really had to sort of prove himself. And then, when he became about 16, 17 years old, he was arrested for kidnapping. And a judge gave him a break. And he saw that as a revelation for him, and he turned himself around. And he leaves San Francisco, moves back to San Andreas, California, where his mom is living, and bonds with her and tries to change his life and sort of go back into having his own family with Sarah (ph) and having two children, and then going full circle and becoming a counselor himself for troubled teens. So, I think that that's -- for me, that's what it was all about, and to see that some kids can actually turn themselves around with the right kind of support, that they need even more help than they're getting today. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Boy, is that a haunting end photo. We'll check morning papers after the break. We'll be right back. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

(ROOSTER CROWING) 

BROWN: Okeydoke, time to check morning papers from around the country and around the world.Couple of interesting things in them. And we'll get to the interesting things after we deal with "The International Herald Tribune." That was a little joke. I like this story. It will be in a lot of papers tomorrow. "Scientists Claim Bush Bends Data. Distortions Are Said to Serve Policy Goals." It's a very prestigious group of Nobel laureates making this charge, and it's an uncomfortable one for the White House to deal with, dealing with things like the ozone layer and that sort of thing. And we'll see if that story has any legs tomorrow. 

That's in "The International Herald Tribune." Forget that. I was going to do something there, but I changed my mind. OK, a lot of front pages are dealing with the president's backing off on the jobs report. It's interesting to see how they do it. "President Retreats" is the word 

"The Chattanooga Times Free Press" uses, "Retreats On New Jobs Prediction. Democrats Use Optimistic 2.6 Million Figure as Ammunition in Battle Over the Economy." That's who they do it.""The Oregonian." "President Backs Off Forecast For Jobs. The Bush Administration Remains Optimistic About Employment, a Political Target For Democrats." Pretty similar there. Howard Dean -- I almost said John Dean. Larry did that last night, too. "Howard Dean Ends Campaign For White House" also on the front page. He had a lot of support in Oregon, or so it seemed. And so that's a good front-page story for them. It's front-page in most places.

"San Francisco Chronicle." "Bush Troubled by San Francisco Decree on Same-Sex Marriage." I'd watch carefully what's happening in San Francisco, where licenses are being issued, even though the law states otherwise. "Bush Backs Off Jobs Forecast. President Makes Second Embarrassing Retreat in a Week." That's the way "The San Francisco Chronicle" did it.Tell me again on time? Twenty-five.OK, I'll do this quickly. Look at this picture of Howard Dean, OK, in "The San Francisco Chronicle" quickly. Kind of a nice picture. Smiling, OK? Here's how "The Washington Times," a paper somewhat less sympathetic, I would say, to Governor Dean -- you can't really see this picture. "Dean Drops Out of Race." But it's a kind of angry Howard Dean picture.Oh, it's too bad we didn't get to that. We'll do this one quickly. 

"The North Platte Bulletin" in North Platte, Nebraska, that would be; "36 Days on Hell's Island." It's the story of Iwo Jima told by two local people.The weather in Chicago tomorrow is "hallelujah." Sounds good to me.We'll wrap up the day in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: Before we go tonight, a recap of our top story.Howard Dean dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. He promised to keep working to reshape the party and help the eventual nominee defeat President Bush come fall.Tomorrow on this program, "On the Rise" with Jessica Alpert- Goldman, the owner, fashion designer, and self-described handbag guru of the world, according to Jess. These are not your grandmas' pocketbooks. That's tomorrow night on NEWSNIGHT "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" coming up next for most of you.We'll see you tomorrow at 10:00 Eastern time. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT. 

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.comProjections>

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Kerry Wins Wisconsin; Edwards Close Second

Kerry Wins Wisconsin; Edwards Close Second

Aired February 17, 2004 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.Five days ago Wisconsin looked like a blowout. It did not turn out that way. Independents and late deciders moved toward John Edwards. You'll hear from him in a bit. Edwards, it seems, again benefiting from the endorsements of the major newspapers in the state of Wisconsin but has this all changed the race? Is it a race? Does close count in politics like horseshoes, questions for the night?The first question of the night goes to CNN's Wolf Blitzer who is in Washington and can now project a winner, Wolf a headline.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Aaron.The headline is John Kerry will win Wisconsin. CNN can project that based on exit polls as well as actual ballots that have been counted at sample precincts around the state, a close race but John Kerry will carry the primary in Wisconsin.

BROWN: Wolf, thank you.To the battleground itself, Kelly Wallace with the Kerry campaign in Middleton, Wisconsin, Kelly what's the headline there tonight?

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the headline here, Kerry's advisers extremely pleased that he is victorious here in Wisconsin. They say a win is a win no matter how close this race turned out to be and they continue to say he is the only candidate running a national campaign. We should hear from Mr. Kerry very soon -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you.Dan Lothian is with the Edwards campaign and I know from having just talked to Mr. Edwards, Senator Edwards, they feel like they won tonight as well, Dan a headline.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, that's right. Senator Edwards had been sensing momentum building in his campaign over the past couple of days. The polls had shown him way behind Howard Dean but tonight a much better than expected performance -- Aaron.BROWN: Thank you, Dan. A lot of celebrating but none of it, I suspect, at the Dean campaign headquarters. Candy Crowley is there, a headline from you tonight.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, believe it or not, Aaron, we are hearing some applause as this gets underway but let's face it, Howard Dean is zero for 17. He is, we think, coming in a distant third tonight. It's going to be very hard to pretty that up.

BROWN: Candy, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.The program is a bit fluid tonight but here's among the things we think we're going to get to. We'll hear from Los Angeles Cardinal Roger Mahoney about the priest sex abuse scandal, what a study in his archdiocese turned up.We'll also check morning papers at some point in the night.We'll hear from John Edwards as well.We expect to hear from Senator Kerry. He'll come out and talk to his supporters, all of that and perhaps a surprise or two.We begin in Wisconsin, of course, where very late in the game, this weekend, the polls showed John Kerry in a romp. Instead, it now looks like Kerry by a nose over Senator John Edwards.Here is how the vote looks with about a third of it is, two percentage points separating Senators Kerry and Edwards and then the rest of the pack, Dean, Kucinich and Sharpton.How we in the media, how newspapers will lead this all tomorrow, do you lead this, this is a John Kerry win or do you lead this as the Edwards' surprise, is part of the story we'll be dealing with tonight.Senator Kerry clearly did not do as well as expected but he does continue to rack up delegates and delegates in the end are what matter. Senator Edwards at this point can say he is coming closer. He can also say he attracts voters who will make a difference in the fall, independents. He did very well among independents in Wisconsin as Bill Schneider will explain in a little bit. About the only thing we can say for absolute certain tonight is that the race isn't over yet. So, we'll go back to our correspondents and we'll start with Kelly Wallace who is with the Kerry camp -- Kelly.

WALLACE: Aaron, no surprise, Kerry's advisers think the way this story should be reported is that John Kerry is the winner. His aides continue to say that he is the one winning the delegates that he is the one running a national campaign. They continue to say that John Edwards is one who is cherry-picking this campaign and going into certain states and not running a national race. That being said though this race definitely tighter than at least the polls going into it indicated it would be and you had advisers talking throughout the day saying, look, to win this nomination you have to win states. You can't keep coming in second place. So that was part of the message coming from the John Kerry team.We are expecting the Senator to come out here shortly and talk to his supporters. He was watching the returns with wife Teresa up in a hotel room and he did some last minute interviewing, some last minute get-out-the-vote efforts talking to local television stations, going to a polling place.He said he's taking nothing for granted. He and his aides clearly saw that this was tighter than they expected, so late in the day they tried to do everything they can to pull out a victory -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, do they have any honest, as opposed to straight spin, any honest explanation for why this thing closed so tight over the last 48 hours?

WALLACE: Well, they will say a couple of things. We did get some advisers saying earlier in the day that John Edwards spent more money on advertising than John Kerry. They would say he spent 20 percent more.They would also say that John Edwards spent more time in this state and that is what they're trying to say that John Kerry is competing nationally, that he went to Nevada, that he's going to these other states, that he didn't just come here to Wisconsin and kind of plant his feet down.But they'll have some explaining to do in some ways because going into this, no doubt, the polls were showing that John Kerry had a nearly 40 point lead and then you have a tighter race, a lot of people making a decision over the past few days after John Edwards started to draw distinctions between himself and John Kerry.But, Aaron, they keep coming back to the numbers. They say it comes down to delegates. They say he has almost four times the number than John Edwards and they say that will give him momentum going into the Super Tuesday states -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you. We'll keep an eye on, I see Max Cleland coming up on the podium. He's been traveling with Senator Kerry. We assume Senator Kerry will be there shortly. We'll come back to you for that.Dan Lothian in Milwaukee with the Edwards camp, we talked with Senator Edwards, I don't know, ten minutes ago and he was jubilant or at least as jubilant as you can be under the circumstances of not actually winning. Do they have a feel for why they closed well?

LOTHIAN: They keep saying time and time again and they're reinforcing that again tonight is that his message was resonating with the voters. We have been talking all along throughout the campaign about how important it was for voters to get behind someone who was electable but what they say is that...

BROWN: Let me -- Dan, stop.

LOTHIAN: Yes.

BROWN: Stop for a second. Let me interrupt you. Howard Dean has taken the podium at his headquarters.

LOTHIAN: OK.

BROWN: Let's listen to a bit of that and then Dan we'll come back to you.

LOTHIAN: OK.

BROWN: Howard Dean at one point had said in an note, an e-mail to his supporters that this was make or break for him. Then he kind of walked away from that a bit, though he raised a lot of money from the e-mail and he will go to Vermont tomorrow to figure out the plan, running at about 18 percent of the vote. Obviously there is some serious thinking needs to be done.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You all make me so happy I could just scream. Let me -- let me thank your fantastic Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager and let me thank Senator John Erpenbach, who was the first Wisconsin official to endorse us a long time ago. Thank you very much. And your extraordinary Dane County commissioner -- that's not your real title is it? Executive, thank you, somebody wrote the wrong thing down here Kathleen Falk.These are three -- these are three extraordinary people who have done a great job for the state of Wisconsin and I appreciate their support, their integrity, their help. I also want to introduce one other person that doesn't know he's going to get introduced and I'm sure he'll be very embarrassed, our state campaign manager Mike Tate, thank you very much for all your help.

BROWN: This is that part of every political speech where everyone gets introduced.

DEAN: I hate to go through all this and bore you all but the truth is we couldn't have done this without these folks. I want to thank the SEIU. They stuck with me through thick and thin and I want to thank the International Union of Painters and Allied Trade, the painters sticking with us right until the end. We appreciate it very much. You guys are great.

BROWN: Not every union has stayed with Senator -- or with Governor Dean to the end.

DEAN: I want to thank the people of Wisconsin. I have really had a great ten days here and -- and I understood if I'd have stayed one more day I would have been able to register and vote today. I have called Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards and congratulated them on two very, very good campaigns and I certainly appreciate how hard they worked and I appreciate even more how hard you worked.There's an awful lot of people from all over this country who came to Wisconsin, a lot of people from Wisconsin who really worked hard to change this country and change this party and, guess what, you have succeeded.I know that some of you are disappointed because we didn't do as well as we'd hoped we would do in Wisconsin but I also want you to think for a moment about how far we have come. There are a lot of people in this room that are young and when you're young you never think things go as fast as you'd like them to go but the truth is change is tough and there's enormous institutional pressure in this country against change.There's enormous institutional pressure in Washington against change, in the Democratic Party against change and you have already started to change the Democratic Party and we will not stop.You have already written the platform of the Democratic Party for this election. A year ago -- a year ago the Democrats were falling all over each other to vote for the war in Iraq. They sure don't talk like that now.A year ago the Democrats were accepting reckless budget deficits and huge tax cuts that mortgage our children's futures. They don't talk like that anymore. A year ago they were adopting the president's education policies which leave every child behind. They all voted for it but they don't support it anymore.Some of them even adopted the phony Medicare bill which gives more money to HMOs and insurance companies and drug companies than it does to seniors but they don't talk like that anymore.Finally -- finally we've got a Democratic Party that talks about its roots again, its core issues again. Finally Democrats in Washington have learned that they can stand up to the most right-wing president that we've had in my lifetime and that, guess what, if you stand up and you say what you believe the voters actually like it.We are not done. A year ago -- a year ago Democrats were getting ready to run the 2004 campaign just like they always have in the past and just thought just like the Republicans did. They were asking for those large donations from all those special interests in Washington, collecting all that bundled money from special interests and you showed them that we don't have to do that anymore.You showed them you can raise more money than the special interests can, dollar by dollar, $25, $50 at a time from ordinary people, a quarter of all the people who gave money to our campaign were under 30 years old. That hasn't happened since I was under 30 years old and that was a long time ago. But we have a long way to go. In order to change America we have to fundamentally change Washington, both the Democrats and the Republicans. Russ Feingold and John McCain passed a great campaign finance bill. It is not enough. We need real campaign finance reform to get the special interests out of Washington.You have done that and we are not done yet together. This campaign has been about giving the power in this country back to ordinary people, taking it away from the big corporations who moved their headquarters to Bermuda and their jobs to China and giving power and jobs back to ordinary Americans again.But we are not done yet. Fifty-six years ago Harry Truman promised health insurance to every man, woman and child in America. Fifty-six years later, special interests giving money to both parties and stopped that dream from being realized. We are not done yet until every American man, woman, and child has health insurance like all those other countries in the world.We are going to continue to fight for a strong America, which understands that security is based on cooperation with other nations and not just confrontation. We are going to fight for a wise America where no child left behind is no longer an empty promise made by politicians in both parties in Washington but a promise that we're going to keep to our school boards and our taxpayers and our parents and, above all, our children.We are going to fight for a fair America where workers can earn a decent wage, where the minimum wage goes up and CEOs don't earn 500 times more than the average working person even as they shift their headquarters to Bermuda and their jobs to China. We can do better than that.

BROWN: Howard Dean speaking to his supporters. We are not done yet together. Does that mean he stays in the race or not, a story for tomorrow.John Edwards clearly in the race tomorrow and for at least another couple of weeks, he is in Milwaukee tonight. He will finish a very solid second in this, a somewhat surprising second, well perhaps not surprising he was second but certainly surprising at how close it was and now he will talk to his people there.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Wisconsin. Today -- today the voters of Wisconsin sent a clear message. The message was this. Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear.The people of Wisconsin spoke loudly and clearly today. They want a debate. They want this campaign to continue. They want someone who will stand up and fight for them and fight for their jobs.Let me tell you, let me tell you why this campaign and this debate is going to continue for the people I met with this week from Tower Automotive, who have lost their jobs. I have seen the looks that I saw on their faces were very familiar to me. I have seen these looks before.BROWN: Senator John Kerry who is in Middleton, Wisconsin tonight and he is the winner. No matter how you slice this and dice this he won tonight but expectations count and he did not reach the expectations of just two days ago.

EDWARDS: Have they not done what's right? 

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), 

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. Thank you very much. Look at this guy up here on the shoulders. He looks great. Young and old are coming out.The motto of the state of Wisconsin is forward and I want to thank the state of Wisconsin for moving this cause and this campaign forward tonight here in this great state. I thank you so much. Thank you.Every -- every week across our country wherever we go we are feeling the power of change that is sweeping across this nation, the desire for change to come to America. Everywhere I've been in this campaign, and Teresa and the rest of us, we've seen the hurt of workers without work, the hurt of families without health care struggling to afford it if they have it and struggling to find it when they don't, of Americans whose savings have been swept away by corporate scandal, of so many dreams that have been deferred or denied.But I've also seen everywhere in every community, rural and urban, all across this land and particularly in the last days here in Wisconsin the sense of hope, the sense of the possibilities of our nation and a resolve to make a new future, to lift our country up and reach for the America that we know we have yet to become. That is what this race is about.That America, and these are not just words, that America is a land of opportunity, not just for some but for all. It's a nation respected in the world not just for its missiles and its military might but for the power of our ideals.We reject the view that a president's job is just to raise the value of the stock market. We believe the job of a president is to put America back to work and to do it now.We will insist on worker protections, on labor rights, on environmental rights in every trade agreement because given a fair playing field, which is what they deserve, there is no one in the world that the American worker can't compete against and we will give that fair playing field to workers across our country.We will hold up the tax code of our country, your tax code, to the full light of democracy and accountability and we will close every loophole, every reward, every benefit that actually entices some Benedict Arnold type company or CEO to exploit the tax code and send American jobs and money overseas. We will end that for this nation.Instead, what we intend to do is provide new incentives for manufacturing, creating the jobs here at home and providing the rewards not for those who take the jobs overseas but the rewards should go to those good companies that create the good jobs here at home and that's what we will do.And, I -- I will tell you -- let me tell you what we will outsource. We will outsource George Bush's unaffordable tax cut for the wealthiest Americans so we can invest in health care and education in this country and we will create -- and we will create 500,000 new jobs by moving towards energy independence, clean energy alternative and renewables in our land so that no young American in uniform will ever be held hostage to America's dependence on oil from the Middle East.We will -- yes. And I pledge to you we will stand up to the HMOs, to the big drug companies so that we may make health care in the United States of America, the richest country on this planet and the only industrial nation not yet to recognize health care is a right not a privilege for the wealthy and for the powerful.The members -- the members of Congress and the president and the vice president give themselves at your expense, because of your labor and your work, very good health care and I will take to the White House and offer to the Congress the gold standard of America's health care which is the health care they give themselves and suggest that every family's health care in America is as important as any politician in Washington, D.C.And what motivates us and drives us in this race and in this cause, all across the country, what brings all of you here together tonight and in the past days and states across the nation in Tennessee and Virginia to the north to the Dakotas, to the west to Washington and now here in Wisconsin is that we have a vision. We see an America where every child can go to a good school. We see an America where every teacher is respected for doing one of the most important jobs in our country and respected, not just in words, but respected in the resources we give the schools to be able to do the job.We -- because we see a country, we see a country where the doors of higher education are open to all and when I am president we will have a $4,000 per pupil tuition tax credit and we will help young people take part in national service out of high school, two years of service, and we'll pay for their full in state four-year college public education. And we see -- and what drives us also is our vision where we see an America where we cut the poverty of millions instead of cutting the taxes of millionaires. We need fairness in America. We see -- we see an America where each of us has something to give and each of us is challenged to give something back to our country. We see an America of civil rights and civil liberties and we see an America with an attorney general who is not John Ashcroft.And we see -- and above all, above all in an age of terror when we find ourselves at war we are driven by the vision which sees a stronger America in a safer world.Our opponents say that they want a campaign on the issue of national security. Well, I look forward to that campaign because I believe this president has over extended the troops of our nation, over extended the Guard and the Reserve, put people at greater risk than they should have been and lost alliances and respect and influence that America had in the world.I believe -- I -- there is a great brigade of veterans all across this country who know that the real definition of patriotism is in keeping faith with those who served the uniform of their country and those who wore it and we need to do a better job of keeping faith with the VA hospitals and with our veterans and with those who come home as we do that.And, we -- from Max Cleland who has been helping to lead this effort to my friends who served with me years ago on the boats of Vietnam, we will come back and remind America that some of us know something about aircraft carriers for real and we intend to make clear -- and if George Bush -- if George Bush, Carl Rove and Ed Gillespie and company want to make national security the central issue of this campaign we have three words for them we know they understand, bring it on. We're ready for that debate.So, tonight I reach out to all Americans, those who have not yet joined in this effort and those who have because we need to reclaim our own democracy in the United States. We need to push away the big money of American politics. We need to bring so many young people who have lost faith in the system back to believing that this can be and is a noble profession, that all of our individually can make a difference, that our generation is now called on to write our portion of American history and I ask those who haven't yet joined us, go to JohnKerry.com, become part of the extended family of this effort. Share your ideas, share your thoughts, share your lives and hopes with us, because together we can change the direction of our country.

(APPLAUSE)

I want to thank so many people. But I begin by thanking my amazing wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who has...

(APPLAUSE)

Everywhere I go, people say, "I wanted to see Teresa."

(LAUGHTER)

So I'm getting to be the guy who accompanies Teresa around the United States of America, which is just fine by me. And I'll tell you, it's obviously proven fine by a lot of folks who've loved meeting her.I want to thank all the members of my family...

(APPLAUSE)

... my brothers and sisters, the members of my extended family.BROWN: John Kerry, the winner tonight in the state of Wisconsin. Senator Edwards has also come out, as has Howard Dean, Howard Dean saying, "We are not done yet together," which may or may not mean he's staying in the race.And John Edwards saying, "Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear." That is the best line of the night. Here are the numbers as we go to break. When we come back, we'll talk more about why Wisconsin turned out the way it did tonight. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: We heard Bob Dole say a little earlier tonight that Bill Schneider is one of the few people in the business who really understands the polling and exit polling. It seems like a perfectly appropriate introduction from us, too. He is our senior political analyst. And Mr. Schneider joins us tonight from Washington. Welcome. Well, how did Senator Edwards do it? 

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, we asked the question that I call the Brooklyn question to the voters. What do you wanna do? We asked them, do you want to defeat Bush or do you wanna send a message? Well, let's take look at the voters who said defeating Bush is the most important thing. That was a third of the voters in Wisconsin. And they went 2-1 for Kerry over Edwards. That is why John Kerry won. That's why he's been winning all along, because voters see him as electable. But take a look at what the voters who said what they really wanted to do was send a message. They said issues were more important. That's where Edwards built up an edge over Kerry, 40-28. Edwards had a message. The message rang true in Wisconsin. It was a message about one word, jobs. Wisconsin voters care a lot about jobs, because their state has lost 75,000 jobs in the last three years. Edwards has a populist economic message. He criticized Dean and Kerry for supporting NAFTA, which is an agreement that Wisconsin voters told us they overwhelmingly believe has cost a lot of Americans their jobs. Well, one guy certainly got that message. We just heard it. It's John Kerry, who was very critical of free trade deals and said, if he becomes president, he intends to revisit them -- Aaron. 

BROWN: In Wisconsin, Republicans -- it's an open primary. Republicans can vote. Independents can vote. Can we break down the numbers in such a way that we understand the importance of those two groups on the outcome? 

SCHNEIDER: Yes, we can. About 60 percent of the voters in Wisconsin were Democrats. They called themselves Democrats. And they voted very strongly, by about 20 points, for John Kerry over John Edwards. On the other hand, about 30 percent of the voters were self-described independents, who can vote in Wisconsin. They are the voters among whom John Edwards did very well. He had a strong appeal to independent voters. So you can argue either way. You can say independent contaminated the Democratic primary and distorted the choices. On the other hand, Democrats can't win without independents. So you heard John Edwards come out and say, it's the independents who hold the key to victory in this election. That why's John Edwards says, I'd be better situated to beat George Bush because I can appeal beyond the Democratic base. 

BROWN: Well, that may be the one thing that Democrats and Republicans have in common, is they can't win without independents. 

SCHNEIDER: That's absolutely true. 

BROWN: Bill, thank you very much -- Bill Schneider. You'll hear more from Bill at the top of the hour tonight. Joining us now, two political analysts, Jeff Greenfield and John Harwood. John writes politics for "The Wall Street Journal." It's good to have them both with us. Jeff, John Edwards said, those objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear. It is the line of the night, and he's not wrong.

 JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: No. It's a great line, especially in contrast to John Kerry, who surprisingly sort of came out and gave a kind of modular acceptance speech. BROWN: Yes. 

GREENFIELD: The problem for John Edwards is, he is trying to make an electability argument, the one that carried John Kerry so far, namely, I can win where Kerry can't. But there aren't any party bosses anymore. In the old days, you would make that argument and the party bosses would say, that's right. Well, there aren't any. You have to make that argument to primary voters. And John Edwards's great challenge, even if he's the object in the mirror that was closer than we thought he was, in two weeks, he's got 10 states and he's got to go those voters and say, among other things, not just, here's where I disagree with Senator Kerry, but here's where I can win. And if that argument doesn't penetrate the sheer arithmetic of what will happen on Super Tuesday, with 1151 delegates, is going to make it almost impossible for John Edwards to catch up to that automobile named John Kerry still in front of him. 

BROWN: John, what's the lead? How would you write the lead for tonight? 

JOHN HARWOOD, POLITICAL EDITOR, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL": Well, I think the lead is that John Kerry has won the 15th out of 17 races that he's competed in so far. And he's the overwhelming front-runner to win the Democratic nomination. He's not just the Yankees with Alex Rodriguez. He's the Yankees with A-Rod and Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa as well. John Edwards is a fine candidate, a better campaigner than John Kerry. But he's won one out of 17 contests. It's not impossible for him to overcome Kerry's lead, but it's extremely unlikely. 

BROWN: We humans, all of us, love a little drama. We love a little excitement. And perhaps we sometimes make more of it than is there. What I hear you saying is that, in this case, that's exactly what's happening, that close is still only second, and he lost. 

HARWOOD: Aaron, he's just recovered tonight to the same level of competitiveness with John Kerry and vis-a-vis Howard Dean as well as he experienced a month ago in the Iowa caucuses. He's got to move forward a lot more quickly than that. And the time for him to take sort of symbolic solace out of a close second place is rapidly coming to a close. You've got a national primary in effect on March the 2nd, big contests in California and New York. His strategists are already talking about California not really being a prime target. They're looking at Georgia and Ohio and New York, perhaps. But he's got to start winning a lot of places, and very quickly, in order to catch up. 

BROWN: Jeff, do you think -- a week ago, when we all gathered around and had this conversation, the opening question was, is it over? 

GREENFIELD: Right. 

BROWN: Clearly, it's going on. 

GREENFIELD: Yes. 

BROWN: It's going on. But, in a mathematical sense, is it over? Or is it in play? 

GREENFIELD: No, it's not over, because -- let me just give you some number. Field Poll, January 15 in California, 32 days ago, Dean 25, Clark 20, Lieberman 12, Kerry 7. Two of those three are out of the race and Dean is hanging on by dental floss. What makes it so difficult is -- and I think this is where John is exactly right -- is, I think it was once said that close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes. If you don't start winning and change the whole dynamic of the race, so that Democratic voters begin to see Edwards as the more electable person and somebody they like on the issues, then this thing just plays out to an inevitable conclusion. Ohio is a perfect state for John Edwards. It's 4 percent of its manufacturing jobs. The resentment against the trade agreements run high there. Georgia may be the same. Upstate New York is an economic basket case. It's not enough. And if you're going to, among other things, sort of concede California, with 370 delegates, you've got a very, very difficult case. Maybe the problem for John Edwards was that, when Wes Clark didn't lose Oklahoma, he didn't get the field cleared early enough. But it's still really, really difficult to see how Edwards pulls this off. But, no, it's not over. 

(CROSSTALK) 

HARWOOD: Aaron, could I make one point based on what Bill Schneider just told us about the partisan breakdown? 

BROWN: Yes, quickly, please.

HARWOOD: John Kerry won by 20 percent among Democrats. Edwards did much better among Republicans and independents. John McCain showed in 2000 that doing well among independents and people who are not members of your party is a good formula for breaking through a couple of places, as he did in New Hampshire and Michigan, but it's not a formula for winning a major-party nomination. 

BROWN: John and Jeff, thank you both. 

GREENFIELD: Thank you. BROWN: It is -- however it shakes from here on out, this thing does have another couple of weeks to go. We'll show you the numbers, where we are right now, as our coverage continues on NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: For those of you who just may be joining us, CNN is projecting that Senator John Kerry will win tonight in the state of Wisconsin. But, clearly, it is a much closer race than any of us anticipated 48 hours ago. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina will come in second by just a few percentage points. And we talked with the senator shortly before the program began. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Senator, did the race in the last 48 hours close for any particular reason, or is it just that independents in Wisconsin get to vote? 

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I think it's a number of things. No. 1, we had a debate Sunday night here, which a lot of Wisconsin voters watched. That was helpful to me. Yesterday, I got the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper, making the case that I should be the nominee, because I could attract independents and moderate Republicans and would be the most electable against George Bush. And then, on top of that, in the election, apparently today, we had a huge turnout of independents. And I won by a pretty decisive margin among that group. 

BROWN: It doesn't appear you're going to win tonight, but it does appear that you are going to get exactly what you wanted, which is a one-on-one with Senator Kerry two weeks from now. Tell me how the message changes, if the message changes, now that you've got yourself this one-on-one? 

EDWARDS: I don't think it changes. I think it's important for people to know the differences between us. I like and respect John Kerry very much. And I think he feels the same way about me, but we have differences, for example, on issues of trade. He supported NAFTA. I was against NAFTA. I've been opposed to a number of trade agreements that he supported. And I've also seen personally what the impact has been of trade and factories closing. No one has to explain that to me.I saw what happened when the factory in my own hometown closed, what impact it had on the community and the families involved. So there are clear differences between us. Now those differences will become more apparent to Democratic voters. 

BROWN: And it does seem -- you said Democratic voters. And we've been talking a bit about independent voters. And, clearly, they made a huge difference for you tonight, if our exit polling is right -- and I believe in it. 

EDWARDS: Yes. Yes. 

BROWN: In the states coming up in two weeks, do the independents get to vote in many, some, none? Do you know? 

EDWARDS: It varies from -- it varies from state to state. I'm not an expert on it.But what I do know is, in places like, New York, Ohio, Georgia, and in California, to some extent, this issue of jobs and the economy, which is what attracted a lot of people to me in this race in Wisconsin, is a very powerful issue. So I think there are lots of places that I'll be very strong in the upcoming primaries. 

BROWN: Do you believe you can go one-on-one with the president on national security? 

EDWARDS: Absolutely. Absolutely, I can. The president is not doing the things that need to be done, in my judgment, to keep the American people safe. And I look forward very much to a debate with the president on that issue. 

BROWN: Senator, where do you go tomorrow? 

EDWARDS: I go home and see my kids in the morning, late tonight, early morning. Then, I head out again tomorrow afternoon, New York, New Jersey, Georgia. I'm going to be all over the place. BROWN: Stop by and see us. Congratulations. You had a very good night tonight. You surprised a lot of people. And, clearly, this thing is not over yet. 

EDWARDS: No, it's not over yet. Thank you, Aaron. 

BROWN: Thank you, sir, very much. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Senator John Edwards. Lawyers who have worked with him and against him say about Senator Edwards that, as a lawyer, he was the best closer in the business. He's had a couple of good closes in this campaign, one of them tonight in Wisconsin. Here are the numbers as we have them now.When we come back, a look at a convention that still might be, but for now remains Jeff Greenfield's fantasy. We'll be right back. This is NEWSNIGHT. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

BROWN: At the risk of getting way ahead of ourselves, we believe this summer's presidential nominating conventions in Boston and New York will be utterly predictable and, unless you love speechmaking, boring, to boot. We mean no disrespect, but these things have become political TV programs, carefully staged and crafted to avoid making any real news. But what if it didn't play out that way? What if instead it was like the good old days? What if Jeff Greenfield's dream came true? 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWD: Kerry! Kerry! Kerry! 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Kerry, Kerry. The chanting is under way here. 

JOE KLEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: It's hard to see anybody who can successfully challenge this guy. 

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC: The party's over.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: It's almost over but the shouting.

GREENFIELD (voice-over): Unless things change Pretty quickly, John Kerry will have the nomination wrapped up well before the coming of spring, just as George W. Bush did in 2000, just like Al Gore did that same year, just like Bob Dole did in 1996. And you know what that means? 

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC: It means everybody for V.P. 

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS: Who John Kerry may think about as a running mate. 

GREENFIELD: Four-and-a-half months where the only political story is who the running mate will be. Boy, that will get the heart rate up there. And then the convention. Do we watch that four-day home shopping spectacle or do we go down to Main Street to the watch haircuts? (on camera): Boy, wouldn't it be great to cover just one presidential race where the candidates ran hard all through spring and summer, and we went to a convention where we didn't know what was going to happen? Imagine. (voice-over): We'd see credentials fights. 

NARRATOR: And a floor for their... 

GREENFIELD: Like in 1952, different slates, each claiming to represent their home states. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were supposed to have a caucus of 45 minutes. 

GREENFIELD: We'd listen to politicians furiously denounce each other, like when Senator Ev Dirksen said to failed nominee Tom Dewey. 

SEN. EVERETT DIRKSEN, ILLINOIS: We followed you before, and you took us down the road to defeat. And don't do this to us.

GREENFIELD: Or like in Chicago in 1968, when Senator Abe Ribicoff called out Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. 

SEN. ABE RIBICOFF, CONNECTICUT: And with George McGovern is president of the United States, we wouldn't have to have gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago! 

GREENFIELD: We'd have conservatives and liberals yelling at each other, the way New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller was booed in 1964. 

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And we bid you goodbye. 

GREENFIELD: Maybe there would walkouts, the way Southern Democrats left the hall in 1948 after the party passed a strong civil rights plank, and roll calls where we didn't know who would win, like when Democrats fought over the vice presidential slot in 1956, or when Reagan and Ford battled it out 20 years later, and maybe, just maybe we would even have:(on camera): A brokered convention.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Two hundred and eighty.

GREENFIELD (voice-over): We'd go to a second, a third, a fourth ballot, while party bosses huddled in smoke-filled rooms to pick a surprise candidate. (on camera): Sorry, folks. The big bands are not coming back. TV is not a passing fad. Jet travel is here to stay. There are no more party bosses. And smoke-filled rooms are against the law. There won't be any brokered convention anytime soon, but we can dream, can't we? Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 

BROWN: Morning papers and the numbers as we have them. We'll be right back. 

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) 

(ROOSTER CROWING) 

BROWN: OK, time to check morning papers from around the country and around the world. This is a tough night for newspaper editors with late-breaking news. Anyway, we'll start with 

"The International Herald Tribune," and you'll see the problem later, when we get to the election domestically. I like this story. "In Iraqi City, a Dangerous Trade. Islamic Influence Rises And So Do Attacks on Alcohol Vendors," the complications of the new Iraq in "The Herald Tribune." I don't know how many saw this picture the other day. This is "The Guardian," a British picture, a picture supposedly of John Kerry and Jane Fonda. And what they've done is, they showed the original pictures. This is a fake. It's a doctored picture. It's totally phony. Here's the original picture up there of Senator Kerry, a young man, and Ms. Fonda there. And somebody put them together. And it's a reminder to all of us to be very careful in this election year. 

"The Boston Herald" got it right, I would say. "Not Over Yet" is the headline. "Kerry Barely Beats Edwards in Wisconsin." That's the way they led the story. Up in the corner by the way, that's Alex Rodriguez, "Sox's Newest Enemy." He signed -- or the trade was official today. He showed up in the Bronx. And that's what makes it official. About a minute left. 

"The Philadelphia Inquirer." "Kerry Leads Edwards in Tight Wisconsin Race." That's the best that they could come up with. It's a tough night, as we said, for the newspaper editors who have an early deadline. I suspect they're remaking a lot of front pages. What do we got here? "Judge Refuses to Halt Weddings" the lead in 

"The San Francisco Chronicle." "Same-Sex Couples Continue Lining Up at City Hall." Also, "Kerry Looks Like Victor in Wisconsin Primary." This is a terrible story out of Detroit, 

"The Detroit Free Press" tonight for tomorrow morning, "Contempt in Court. You come out of a car shooting. That's not a mistake. That's murder. Family, cops, can't contain anger as suspect is arraigned," a 23-year-old man accused of murdering two young, a 26 and 21-year-old, Detroit police officers yesterday.And that is morning papers. We'll wrap up the day in a moment.

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